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 Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:108

Prediction Map
albaleman Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
albaleman Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep25
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-88311-8
Rep+4+4+80-1-110717+7
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic113849
Republican252348
Independent123
 pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
623527
piepiepie

Analysis

Races to watch (in no particular order):

1. Nevada
2. Illinois
3. Colorado
4. Washington
5. Alaska
6. Pennsylvania


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:11:32 prediction Map
Alaska:

37% Lisa Murkowski (W-I)
32% Joe Miller (R)
30% Scott McAdams (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:11:40 prediction Map
Washington:

51% Patty Murray (D)
49% Dino Rossi (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:11:47 prediction Map
Oregon:

58% Ron Wyden (D)
40% Jim Huffman (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:11:55 prediction Map
California:

52% Barbara Boxer (D)
45% Carly Fiorina (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:03 prediction Map
Hawaii:

66% Dan Inouye (D)
31% Cam Cavasso (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:11 prediction Map
Nevada:

48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:18 prediction Map
Idaho:

68% Mike Crapo (R)
27% Tom Sullivan (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:28 prediction Map
Utah:

59% Mike Lee(R)
37% Sam Granato (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:40 prediction Map
Arizona:

59% John McCain (R)
37% Rod Glassman (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:05 prediction Map
Colorado:

50% Ken Buck (R)
48% Michael Bennet (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:13 prediction Map
North Dakota:

70% John Hoeven (R)
28% Tracy Potter (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:20 prediction Map
South Dakota:

100% John Thune (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:31 prediction Map
Kansas:

67% Jerry Moran (R)
27% Lisa Johnston (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:42 prediction Map
Oklahoma:

68% Tom Coburn (R)
29% Jim Rogers (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:50 prediction Map
Iowa:

61% Chuck Grassley (R)
36% Roxanne Conlin (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:59 prediction Map
Missouri:

53% Roy Blunt (R)
44% Robin Carnahan (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:14:12 prediction Map
Arkansas:

56% John Boozman (R)
41% Blanche Lincoln (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:14:33 prediction Map
Louisiana:

56% David Vitter (R)
41% Charlie Melancon (D)

More to come soon, but that's all I had time for right now.

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 10:17:03
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 12:20:47 prediction Map
: (

Very depressing numbers.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:16 prediction Map
Wisconsin:

53% Ron Johnson (R)
46% Russ Feingold (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:24 prediction Map
Illinois:

48% Mark Kirk (R)
46% Alexi Giannoulias (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:33 prediction Map
Kentucky:

55% Rand Paul (R)
45% Jack Conway (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:40 prediction Map
Indiana:

56% Dan Coats (R)
38% Brad Ellsworth (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:49 prediction Map
Alabama:

63% Richard Shelby (R)
37% William Barnes (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:57 prediction Map
Ohio:

59% Rob Portman (R)
40% Lee Fisher (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:08 prediction Map
West Virginia:

53% Joe Manchin (D)
46% John Raese (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:17 prediction Map
New York:

65% Chuck Schumer (D)
33% Jay Townsend (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:26 prediction Map
New York Special:

58% Kirsten Gillebrand (D)
40% Joe DioGuardi (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:36 prediction Map
Pennsylvania:

52% Pat Toomey (R)
48% Joe Sestak (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:43 prediction Map
Maryland:

64% Barbara Mikulski (D)
35% Eric Wargotz (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:51 prediction Map
North Carolina:

54% Richard Burr (R)
42% Elaine Marshall (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:12:00 prediction Map
South Carolina:

63% Jim DeMint (R)
26% Alvin Greene (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:12:08 prediction Map
Georgia:

60% Johnny Isakson (R)
35% Michael Thurmond (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:12:20 prediction Map
Florida:

47% Marco Rubio (R)
31% Charlie Crist (I)
20% Kendrick Meek (D)


Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 17:12:27
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:14:10 prediction Map
Vermont:

67% Pat Leahy (D)
30% Len Britton (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:14:19 prediction Map
Connecticut:

55% Richard Blumenthal (D)
45% Linda McMahon (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:14:30 prediction Map
New Hampshire:

57% Kelly Ayotte (R)
42% Paul Hodes (D)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:44:37 prediction Map
Delaware:

56% Chris Coons (D)
41% Christine O'Donnell (R)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:03:43 prediction Map
Minnesota Governor's race:

Mark Dayton (DFL) 52%
Tom Emmer (R) 34%
Tom Horner (IP) 12%

13% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:05:59 prediction Map
Minnesota's 1st congressional district:

Tim Walz (DFL) 60%
Randy Demmer (R) 34%
Steven Wilson (IP) 5%

2% reporting
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 22:09:16 prediction Map
Bachman is only up 7!!

I hope Oberstar isn't in as much trouble as we thought...
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:20:07 prediction Map
Illinois Senate race:

Alexi Giannoulias (D) 49%
Mark Kirk (R) 46%

62% reporting

GO ALEXI!

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 22:20:38
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:25:54 prediction Map
Colorado Senate race:

Michael Bennet (D) 50%
Ken Buck (R) 45%

10% reporting
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 22:29:23 prediction Map
With 41% in....

Bennet: 50%
Buck: 45%

This is good!!
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:29:50 prediction Map
Minnesota's 1st congressional district:

Tim Walz (DFL) 55%
Randy Demmer (R) 39%
Steven Wilson (IP) 5%

10% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:33:02 prediction Map
Illinois Senate race:

Alexi Giannoulias (D) 48%
Mark Kirk (R) 46%

69% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:33:55 prediction Map
Minnesota Governor's race:

Mark Dayton (DFL) 50%
Tom Emmer (R) 37%
Tom Horner (IP) 12%

19% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:39:27 prediction Map
Pennsylvania Senate race:

Joe Sestak (D) 52%
Pat Toomey (R) 48%

62% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:51:03 prediction Map
Minnesota Governor's race:

Mark Dayton (DFL) 49%
Tom Emmer (R) 38%
Tom Horner (IP) 12%

27% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:51:45 prediction Map
Minnesota's 1st congressional district:

Tim Walz (DFL) 51%
Randy Demmer (R) 43%
Steven Wilson (IP) 5%

20% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:52:57 prediction Map
Illinois Senate race:

Mark Kirk (R) 48%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%

78% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:53:52 prediction Map
Colorado Senate race:

Michael Bennet (D) 50%
Ken Buck (R) 45%

18% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:01:17 prediction Map
Pennsylvania Senate race:

Pat Toomey (R) 50%
Joe Sestak (D) 50%

93% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:03:23 prediction Map
Minnesota's 1st congressional district:

Tim Walz (DFL) 51%
Randy Demmer (R) 43%
Steven Wilson (IP) 5%

29% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:24:30 prediction Map
Minnesota Governor's race:

Mark Dayton (DFL) 48%
Tom Emmer (R) 39%
Tom Horner (IP) 12%

39% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:24:54 prediction Map
Minnesota's 1st congressional district:

Tim Walz (DFL) 51%
Randy Demmer (R) 43%
Steven Wilson (IP) 5%

41% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:25:45 prediction Map
Illinois Senate race:

Mark Kirk (R) 48%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 46%

89% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:31:08 prediction Map
Washington Senate race:

Dino Rossi (R) 54%
Patty Murray (D) 46%

29% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:01:00 prediction Map
It's official - Pat Toomey is the next Senator from PA:

x Pat Toomey (R) 51%
Joe Sestak (D) 49%

99% reporting

Sestak put up a stronger than expected fight, but in the end it wasn't enough.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:02:21 prediction Map
Washington Senate race:

Patty Murray (D) 51%
Dino Rossi (R) 49%

59% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:04:18 prediction Map
And it's also official that Tim Walz has been reelected as my representative :)))))))))))))) :

x Tim Walz (DFL) 51%
Randy Demmer (R) 43%
Steven Wilson (IP) 5%

60% reporting


Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 00:04:52
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:05:22 prediction Map
Minnesota Governor's race:

Mark Dayton (DFL) 47%
Tom Emmer (R) 40%
Tom Horner (IP) 12%

52% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:06:38 prediction Map
Illinois Senate race:

Mark Kirk (R) 48%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 46%

96% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:09:24 prediction Map
Colorado Senate race:

Michael Bennet (D) 49%
Ken Buck (R) 46%

34% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:22:27 prediction Map
Colorado Senate race:

Michael Bennet (D) 48%
Ken Buck (R) 47%

43% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:26:30 prediction Map
Nevada Senate race:

Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 00:26:46
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:53:45 prediction Map
Colorado Senate race:

Ken Buck (R) 49%
Michael Bennet (D) 46%

48% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:24:10 prediction Map
Here's a potential shocker:

Maine Governor's race:

Paul LePage (R) 38%
Eliot Cutler (I) 37%
Libby Mitchell (D) 19%
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:25:12 prediction Map
Minnesota Governor's race:

Mark Dayton (DFL) 47%
Tom Emmer (R) 40%
Tom Horner (IP) 12%

62% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:26:26 prediction Map
Colorado Senate race:

Ken Buck (R) 48%
Michael Bennet (D) 47%

57% reporting
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 01:30:16 prediction Map
AP says Buck's surge is probably a polling error...
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:31:31 prediction Map
Vermont Governor's race:

Peter Shumlin (D) 50%
Brian Dubie (R) 48%

94% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:36:39 prediction Map
Alaska senate race:

Lisa Murkowski (W-I) 40%
Joe Miller (R) 34%
Scott McAdams (D) 25%

34% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:43:49 prediction Map
Minnesota Governor's race:

Mark Dayton (DFL) 45%
Tom Emmer (R) 42%
Tom Horner (IP) 12%

60% reporting

Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 01:47:04
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 10:15:22 prediction Map
Colorado Senate race:

Michael Bennet (D) 47%
Ken Buck (R) 47%

87% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 10:16:17 prediction Map
Alaska senate race:

Lisa Murkowski (W-I) 41%
Joe Miller (R) 34%
Scott McAdams (D) 24%

99% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 10:17:27 prediction Map
Minnesota Governor's race:

Mark Dayton (DFL) 44%
Tom Emmer (R) 43%
Tom Horner (IP) 12%

97% reporting
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 10:38:28 prediction Map
looks like Oberstar went down to defeat in the wave which was monumental on the House side. And looks like Dayton will squeak by in the vote...

Bennet is back on top so my -6 might be right with an exchange of Penn (really close) for Nevada (not so close-nice ground gain)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 14:51:35 prediction Map
Colorado Senate race:

Michael Bennet (D) 48%
Ken Buck (R) 47%

97% reporting

I'm crossing all of my fingers on this one.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 14:57:21 prediction Map
I don't see how Buck pulls this out.

The only counties yet to fully report are Boulder and Arapahoe...Bennet is ahead in both of them and his lead in Boulder county will probably grow even more.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 14:58:39 prediction Map
We have seen bigger shockers before...
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 15:21:02 prediction Map
Illinois Governor's race:

Pat Quinn (D) 47%
Bill Brady (R) 46%

99% reporting
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 15:31:12 prediction Map
With 99.6% in

Quinn-46.5%
Brady-46.2%

All counties are in except for Cook. Once all of Cook is in, Quinn will likely expand his lead.

Amazing.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 20:23:02 prediction Map
Oregon Governor's race:

Chris Dudley (R) 48.8%
John Kitzhaber (D) 48.5%

97% reporting
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 21:36:30 prediction Map
GO PAT!

GO JOHN!
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 00:51:38 prediction Map
Looks like we lost Illinois but may gain Oregon.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:12:40 prediction Map
Oregon has been called for Kitzhaber:

Oregon Governor's race:

x John Kitzhaber (D) 49.1%
Chris Dudley (R) 48.2%

99% reporting

The same Multnomah county votes that buried Smith also buried Dudley.

Last Edit: 2010-11-04 @ 13:14:30
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:14:16 prediction Map
Vermont Governor's race:

Peter Shumlin (D) 49%
Brian Dubie (R) 48%

98% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:15:45 prediction Map
Washington Senate race:

Patty Murray (D) 51%
Dino Rossi (R) 49%

71% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:18:31 prediction Map
Connecticut Governor's race:

Dan Malloy (D) 49.5%
Tom Foley (R) 49.0%

99% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:19:20 prediction Map
Illinois Governor's race:

Pat Quinn (D) 47%
Bill Brady (R) 46%

100% reporting
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:20:17 prediction Map
Minnesota Governor's race:

Mark Dayton (DFL) 44%
Tom Emmer (R) 43%
Tom Horner (IP) 12%

100% reporting

In case you haven't been following this one, it's going to a recount.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 14:00:40 prediction Map
albaleman,

What the h*ll happened with Jim Oberstar!!!? He had NO excuse to lose!
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 17:20:34 prediction Map
I agree with you, he shouldn't have lost, but here's why he lost:

1. He is an insider, having served 36 years in the house.

2. His district isn't as liberal as it used to be and he had an excellent opponent.

3. He didn't realize how vulnerable he was until it was too late.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 17:25:51 prediction Map
IL called for Quinn!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 18:33:31 prediction Map
YES!!!!!

That was a pleasant surprise.

Quinn really has my respect; he was the only Dem to survive the Rustbelt GOP wave.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 18:34:26 prediction Map
Still, Oberstar has done SOO much for his district.

I did the sense that he underestimated Cravaack though...
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 19:50:34 prediction Map
I agree with the Quinn comment. I am happy with a few other governor surprises too. Basically thought the Dems reclaimed blue states while the GOP reclaimed red states PLUS took the big prizes in the rust belt...more power to them in redistricting...
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-05 @ 09:35:03 prediction Map
Washington called for Murray!
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-06 @ 10:28:07 prediction Map
Well, I think it's time to write a wrap on the election:

I was very disappointed with the results, but of course I knew I would be coming in. With the statehouses I thought we did horrible. I certainly didn't expect that we would lose so many of them. With the Senate I felt we did marginally better than expected, winning suprise wins in Nevada and Colorado. I also felt we did slightly better than expected with the Governorships, winning upsets in Connecticut and Illinois even as we lost Florida. But the house is unacceptable. I can't believe we lost so many house seats.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-07 @ 13:10:35 prediction Map
This ought to be a kick in the shins for Rassmusen:

Hawaii Senate race:

Rassmusen poll: Inouye +13%
Actual result: Inouye +53%

THEY WERE OFF BY 40%!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 13:16:58 prediction Map
LOL>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 16:51:16 prediction Map
Dan Malloy has been declared the next governor of Connecticut.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 20:11:41 prediction Map
YYYYYYEEEEEESSSSSSS!!!!!!!

At least I'll get one point on that race...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 20:34:21 prediction Map
I liked Foley, but the Dems need all the governorships they can get! They'll be down to 20 after this year, which is very low and they could lose up to 4 in 2012!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 20:41:00 prediction Map
WA will likley flip parties, but McKenna has moved to the right, so we'll see...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-09 @ 00:02:04 prediction Map
Bev Perdue's popularity has been stuck in the mid-30's. I hope the GOP nominates a moron against her.

MT is an unknown; Schweitzer is still popular, but its a GOP-leaning swing state.

Then, Manchin's seat may flip; WV is still a Dixiecrat state, but the GOP bench is getting stronger. The Demcorats could probably find a good candidate, but Capito may run.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-10 @ 07:40:27 prediction Map
VOTE!

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127802.0
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-10 @ 18:36:13 prediction Map
^&*#.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-12 @ 17:36:44 prediction Map
The Vermont legislature has (unsurprisingly) chosen Peter Shumlin to be Vermont's next Governor.

Last Edit: 2010-11-12 @ 17:38:11
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-12 @ 18:10:13 prediction Map
Very happy with that one !
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-12 @ 19:18:03 prediction Map
: (

So much for moderates.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-13 @ 10:42:49 prediction Map
http://www.adn.com/2010/11/12/1551982/murkowski-on-track-to-win-on-write.html

*GULP* Go Lisa!

Last Edit: 2010-11-13 @ 10:43:01
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-13 @ 14:13:28 prediction Map
....Loves it!

Palin will have a fit with that one.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-13 @ 18:44:08 prediction Map
Who cares what she thinks???
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-13 @ 19:29:42 prediction Map
LISA MURKOWSKI FOR SENATE!!!!!

Sarah will be soooo mad...

Can't wait....

: ))))))))
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-14 @ 01:16:03 prediction Map
Again who cares?
 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-14 @ 03:39:07 prediction Map
Well, I think the Tea Party base that put Palin on a pedastal might just care.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-14 @ 12:29:44 prediction Map
Sorry CR but she's not just any conservative. And this is not just a defeat for her. It's a monumental defeat for her. Her candidate in her home state has been beaten by a write-in candidate. That's embarrassing.

Last Edit: 2010-11-14 @ 12:33:48
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-14 @ 12:35:35 prediction Map
On the other hand she won't admit Murkowski won. She'll just say Murkowski stole the election.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-14 @ 14:39:27 prediction Map
Her candidate was beaten by a sitting US Senator, an incumbent, who's family has a lot of name recognition and power in a fairly small state (as far as population goes that is). Murkowski ran an excellent campaign and she dealt Miller some fatal blows. So it wasn't just any write-in off the street. And Lisa is still caucusing with our party so the seat remains in GOP hands. McAdams didn't even come close to either Miller or Murkowski.

But I did see that Palin's former Lt Governor, now governor, did win reelection. See supported him too though it was not as high profiled as the senate race.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-14 @ 16:34:18 prediction Map
Furthermore, there is a LOT of bad blood between the Murkowski family and Palin. The way Palin got the GOP nod for governor was by beating Frank Murkowski, the incumbent.
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-14 @ 16:57:39 prediction Map
This is a blow to Palin no matter how you slice it!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-14 @ 17:39:32 prediction Map
Agreed.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-15 @ 20:33:51 prediction Map
Her former Lt Governor is still governor so I like to think of it as a draw. Sarah makes her endorsements and people are free to make up their own minds. Simple as that.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-15 @ 22:32:28 prediction Map
In Alaska. Sean was going to win anyway, because he's a Republican and because he's not completely crazy.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-16 @ 20:37:35 prediction Map
He was still her Lt Governor.

Hey any word on what is happening with the governor's race in Minnesota? Afraid I've lost track.

Last Edit: 2010-11-16 @ 20:45:49
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-17 @ 09:55:08 prediction Map
Well, it's going to a recount barring a miracle. Dayton still leads by about 8,500 votes, or about 0.4%. Following that the Emmer campaign is gearing up for a likely legal challenege.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-17 @ 20:01:40 prediction Map
http://www.adn.com/2010/11/17/1559505/murkowski-emerges-as-winner-in.html

: )

Last Edit: 2010-11-17 @ 20:04:55
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-18 @ 07:58:03 prediction Map
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/17/extra_bonus_quote_of_the_day.html
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-18 @ 13:11:43 prediction Map
lol
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-19 @ 17:07:28 prediction Map
Well I think it's time for my closing comments. As I said earlier, this rebuke of the Democrats (or more accurately incumbent party) was disappointing but not unexpected. Any time the unemployment rate is in the vicinity 10% the incumbent party will be soundly defeated. Hopefully we can bounce back in 2012.

I've had a great time on the atlas, it's been a blast. There's really nothing quite like it. To KS, BushCountry, Miles, ConservRep, colin, d-russ, Liberalrocks, dnul, and all the other posters on the atlas, thank you, you are what makes this site special.

ONWARD TO 2012!

Last Edit: 2010-11-19 @ 17:09:12
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-19 @ 20:35:41 prediction Map
FORWARD!!!!!

FEINGOLD 2012!

(Yes, I just said that) ; )

This really is a unique place. I've had a blast here as well.
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-20 @ 01:43:46 prediction Map
One last comment from me to my fellow MN...what do you think of the lawsuit in our state for the governorship...we used to have such a nice place to run elections...
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-20 @ 17:07:09 prediction Map
It's really too bad. There used to be a common courtesy that existed among things like this, but that doesn't exist anymore.

The fact is that the Emmer folks have absolutely no chance of winning and I think they know that. A recount almost never changes the results by more than 1,000 votes. But they'll keep it going as long as they can so Pawlenty can stay in office, regardless of the cost (to the taxpayers), because that's the next best thing for them. So much for "cutting spending".

And I, like many Minnesotans, was disgusted at the behavior of Tony Sutton at his press conference the day after the election. This is a grown man in a position of leadership, and yet he acted like a 4 year old who wasn't getting his way. Embarrassing.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-12-08 @ 00:22:28 prediction Map
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/12/07/tom-emmer-concedes-minnesota-race-for-governor/
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-12-13 @ 19:12:33 prediction Map
YYYEEEESSS!!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 55/56 44/56 99/112 88.4% pie 42 2 146T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 7 2 74T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 5/11 15/22 68.2% pie 2 2 131T
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 23/52 68/104 65.4% pie 41 - 13T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 11 1 12T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 27/37 62/74 83.8% pie 108 0 21T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 26/37 60/74 81.1% pie 59 0 45T
Aggregate Predictions 213/230 149/230 362/460 78.7% pie



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