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Race to the Moon

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Prediction Map



* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	11
Rep	26
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	9
Rep	21
Ind	0
Tos	7
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	8	3	11	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	10	8	18	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats Democratic 11 38 49 Republican 26 23 49 Independent 0 2 2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	34	25

Analysis

Connecticut: This state began as a tossup but Blumenthal appears to have a substantial lead at this point. Assuming the state polling is accurate.

West Virginia: Still going to be a close race but I believe Manchin will win by at least 2 pts.

NY: Both Schumer and Gillibrand will win with strong margins.

Pennsylvania: Still a tossup but at the end of the day and in this climate I believe Sestak will come up short. He was a good candidate and closed very strong but I just dont think it will be enough. (I sincerily hope I'm wrong)

Ohio: Strong Portman! I believe he will win by a stronger margin then polls are suggesting.

Illinois: Very tight could border on recount territory but I think Kirk will pull it out with strong suburban and down state margins. I think the voter enthusiasm will be felt the heaviest in Cook County (Chicago) despite other speculations of possible voter fraud.

Wisconsin: Feingold is toast and has been for quite sometime. This state is going republican across the board. The GOP will clean up in this strong Obama state.

Colorado: Bennett is closing very strong and has erased much of Bucks leads from a couple of months ago. Will it be enough? I just dont think so. However if there is a democratic suprise win I believe it will appear here before Nevada, Pennsylvania and even Illinois. I am however siding on caution and going with Buck with a slim 1 to 2 pt margin.

Nevada: Despite the Reid money being spent he has unfortunately been unable to close the slight gap in polling in the closing days. Angle has consistently lead by 3 pts or so in the averaged polling. I think that with his high negatives has him defeated here. However its still the perpetual tossup state.

California: Boxer has closed strong as she normally does in her senate bids. Polling shows her breaking out of the tossup category ever so slightly. This coupled with Brown leading substantially in the governors race bodes well for her chances. If the republicans win the senate it will go first through Washington state before California.

Washington: This state appears to have tightened up in the closing days However due to a variety of polls showing the incumbent up and based on the demographics of the state I still give the ever so slight edge to multiple term incumbent
Patty Murray.


States to Watch:
CT
WV
PA
IL
CO
NV
CA
WA

In addition to congressional races in most of the midwest early on should indicate the size or lack there of in the expected GOP wave.

Prediction History

Comments History - show

Version History

71: 2010-11-01 @ 17:48:56 70: 2010-10-27 @ 14:01:50 69: 2010-10-26 @ 16:22:41 68: 2010-10-24 @ 20:32:24 67: 2010-10-22 @ 15:54:49 66: 2010-10-21 @ 16:03:06 65: 2010-10-20 @ 17:17:56 64: 2010-10-18 @ 17:48:23 63: 2010-10-17 @ 15:25:42 62: 2010-10-16 @ 20:16:31 61: 2010-10-13 @ 15:10:20 60: 2010-10-12 @ 13:48:47 59: 2010-10-07 @ 15:07:03 58: 2010-10-06 @ 21:59:32 57: 2010-10-05 @ 23:56:59 56: 2010-10-02 @ 15:27:33 55: 2010-10-01 @ 13:55:54 54: 2010-09-30 @ 12:50:45 53: 2010-09-29 @ 14:13:51 52: 2010-09-28 @ 13:27:07 51: 2010-09-22 @ 20:50:39 50: 2010-09-21 @ 18:33:56 49: 2010-09-20 @ 15:31:19 48: 2010-09-17 @ 19:37:17 47: 2010-09-16 @ 17:09:17 46: 2010-09-15 @ 14:30:19 45: 2010-09-14 @ 21:28:32 44: 2010-09-09 @ 23:37:14 43: 2010-09-05 @ 23:04:38 42: 2010-09-03 @ 13:43:17 41: 2010-09-02 @ 13:18:43 40: 2010-08-25 @ 17:39:51 39: 2010-08-21 @ 12:49:37 38: 2010-08-18 @ 13:37:43 37: 2010-08-17 @ 15:12:30 36: 2010-08-15 @ 17:54:01 35: 2010-08-13 @ 13:53:00 34: 2010-08-12 @ 20:28:15 33: 2010-08-11 @ 19:01:39 32: 2010-08-10 @ 02:54:59 31: 2010-08-07 @ 00:32:27 30: 2010-08-02 @ 13:51:24 29: 2010-07-31 @ 20:05:04 28: 2010-07-30 @ 19:03:45 27: 2010-07-27 @ 23:01:09 26: 2010-07-26 @ 20:39:43 25: 2010-07-24 @ 02:36:23 24: 2010-07-16 @ 16:11:58 23: 2010-07-15 @ 05:50:12 22: 2010-07-13 @ 15:19:58 21: 2010-07-09 @ 20:24:15 20: 2010-07-02 @ 16:33:49 19: 2010-06-20 @ 20:18:26 18: 2010-06-17 @ 21:41:31 17: 2010-06-09 @ 04:20:17 16: 2010-06-07 @ 20:22:11 15: 2010-06-06 @ 18:10:00 14: 2010-05-28 @ 18:04:09 13: 2010-05-24 @ 12:46:43 12: 2010-05-19 @ 02:42:48 11: 2010-05-14 @ 18:27:08 10: 2010-05-03 @ 14:29:24 9: 2010-04-27 @ 17:05:45 8: 2010-04-24 @ 18:11:44 7: 2010-03-18 @ 23:03:52 6: 2010-03-01 @ 20:01:29 5: 2010-02-16 @ 19:28:27 4: 2010-02-03 @ 18:49:32 3: 2010-01-26 @ 19:42:12 2: 2010-01-06 @ 17:19:30 1: 2009-12-21 @ 22:34:42 View Version

Member Comments

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-01 @ 17:49:38
This will likely be my final prediction of this cycle. All comments encouraged and welcomed.

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By: Silent Hunter (D-GBR) 2010-11-01 @ 17:55:48
Good prediction. I think Boxer is pretty solid in CA. Reid is probably gone in NV; he's seen as too close to Obama in the state with the highest unemployment. Time will tell if we're right.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-01 @ 18:02:03
Agreed.

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By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-01 @ 18:17:17
I feel this is where I am today too...although I have slim hopes for Colorado, Nevada and Illinois all for different reasons...ground gme in Nevada for Reid, Illinois movement for DEM candidate for Governor maybe for Senattor, Colorado just plain toss up but western part of state is strong GOP this time... peace to all who have made this a great forum this year...we will be back in two years to lament lack of progress in solving issues or commending GOP/Obama for a CLintonesque governence strategy and agreeing on things that will help us for the future...I pray for the second...but fear for the first... ALoha!

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-01 @ 20:09:45
Here's hoping for just two more states!

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By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 08:54:59
Our maps are almost absolutely identical.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-10 @ 21:20:11
Well folks I was not able to be on much during the actual election but was suprised by a couple of states on my picks. I was very pleased with my local results and to see Sharron Angle defeated so soundly. I was so suprised to see Senator Reid get to a majority of the vote in Nevada.

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-10 @ 21:43:51
Reid ran a great campaign, and Latinos were underestimated.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-10 @ 22:18:01
Angle even lost her home city Reno and County Washoe by more then a few points. Now that has to be embarrassing. Reid at 50% Wow who would have thought! Also glad to see that nut Ken Buck lose.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-10 @ 23:40:46
It is embarrassing. The GOP establishment did little to nothing to help her and in fact some at the state level endorsed Reid. That will not be forgotten so easily. Sharron ended up under preforming with some Republicans and more voters that said they had not been following the race closely and world stay home came out and voted for Reid. But Dingy Harry ran a nasty campaign and that is just the way it is. Still got plenty of victories overall despite our looses in Nevada, Colorado, and West Virginia. Last Edit: 2010-11-10 @ 23:42:12

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 00:03:29
She also underperformed in the rural counties. Under margins needed to carry the state. So any accusation of voter fraud or ballot stuffing could not hold up. The GOP really blew this race by nominating her. She has no buisness in politics. If one can not censor their own comments or take interviews with the media they really have no buisness as a public servant imo.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-11 @ 00:23:04
The people choose her and she was cast aside by the political class as "unworthy." I have my own opinions about Sharron but everyone has the right to run for office. The elites in the GOP did not see it that way and Reid was a very powerful incumbent to challenge. But that's okay. The race is done. Let Reid be the face of the Senate Democrats, makes our job easier imo. Perhaps Governor Brian Sandoval will have better luck in 2016 :)

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 01:22:17
Reid was powerful but extremely vulnerable. Just look at his poll numbers from last summer. There's no denying that this race was forfeited the minute Angle was nominated~!

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-11 @ 23:26:15
Didn't have to be that way with or without Angle but that is just the way it was.

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-12 @ 08:07:53
Angle cost Republicans this race.

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By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-12 @ 09:33:27
Reid had a lot of guts to even go for reelection. He knew by passing the stimulus he'd have to to pay a heavy political price back home, but I'm glad it worked out for Reid in the end.

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-12 @ 09:51:03
I am too, as much as I dislike him.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-12 @ 20:15:33
Perhaps Brian Sandoval can put an end to Harry once and for all in 2016.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-12 @ 23:10:06
Harry may very well decide to retire then. With his age this may be his last term. However if Ensign couldn't do it and now Angle I think he is more powerful then people realize.

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By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-13 @ 01:43:20
I hope Rory Reid gets his dad's seat in 2016.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-13 @ 02:10:52
Gag, I dislike dynasties.

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By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-14 @ 03:47:18
I have some catching up to do here: CR wrote: "It is embarrassing. The GOP establishment did little to nothing to help her and in fact some at the state level endorsed Reid. That will not be forgotten so easily. Sharron ended up under preforming with some Republicans and more voters that said they had not been following the race closely and world stay home came out and voted for Reid. But Dingy Harry ran a nasty campaign and that is just the way it is." Those republicans who defected from Angle did so because they knew that she is absolutely batshit crazy. It says a hell of a lot when members of your own party refused to support the nominated candidate in the face of a massive wave FOR your party and especially concerning the seat that would put the current Senate Majority Leader out of business. You are right: people will not forget it, namely, respected republicans who feel burned by Sarah Palin for supporting such an obviously unqualified whacko. And Harry did not run as nasty a campaign as you think, not one bit more nasty than Angle did. But he used her own words against her, and she deserved it. I personally think that the GOP in NV did your party a favor by not allowing Angle, Buck or O'Donell to get a chance for the world to see who absolutely klingon they are. And this also proves that NV will be tough territory for the GOP in a Prez election in 2012. Last Edit: 2010-11-14 @ 03:49:02

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-14 @ 09:06:40
"Gag, I dislike dynasties." If I remember correctly, you voted for Roy Blunt.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-14 @ 14:35:00
Nevada is always tough ground for presidential races Bonn. But keep in mind, while Angle lost there, we did keep the governorship were Brian Sandoval won comfortably against Reid's son. I think that Nevada in 2012 will be all about the presidential race and we can't know much about that until the GOP selects a nominee. As to Angle herself, yes she did make a lot of strange remarks. I said so during the campaign. The fact that Reid had to struggle against her says a lot too. I don't think that the GOP there did us any favors. Undermining party unity is never good. And it was principally the Tea Party Express that pushed Angle along with Palin, DeMint, and many other conservative groups. Reid proved he could kill Lowden in the primaries and Tarkanian came in third. So the race is what it is. Maybe Governor Sandoval can put an end to Reid in 2016. Yes KS I dislike dynasties. But I took the Blunt dynasty over the Carnahan one so not much choice.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-14 @ 17:02:34
"As to Angle herself, yes she did make a lot of strange remarks. I said so during the campaign." What an understatement!

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-14 @ 17:08:34
Bonn is correct all Harry Reid did was use Angle's direct quotes against her. All are completely available to reference and are on record. Many she has even said on film. So there were no distortions. Angle on the other hand decided to race bait in an attempt to drive up her caucasian base. What back fired was a larger then expected Hispanic turnout. Not only did she lose Las Vegas (Clark county) decisively, she also lost her home city of Reno and Washoe County by more then a few points. That is truely embarrasing. People were disgusted with those race baiting ads in addition to viewing her as out of the mainstream and too extreme. People proably also noted that she rarely did interviews which Reid challenged. Last Edit: 2010-11-14 @ 17:12:32

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-18 @ 07:58:48
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/17/extra_bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-19 @ 15:25:13
Well this appears to be the appropriate time for my exit remarks on this election cycle. As I have noted the departure of two of my fellow respected posters. I have enjoyed chatting with and making additional friends on the forum this year. In addition to familiar names whom I have developed much respect for. While not entirely happy with many of the results there were several victories that have left me personally satisfied this cycle. I was happy with election results in my home state and the Pacific region of the country. In addition to tea party candidates who I felt were far too extreme to hold office being defeated in their respective senate bids in DE,CO,NV,AK. I did not have as much personally invested feelings in many of these races which was a different perspective for me. 2012 may be a different story depending on whom the parties nominate for their candidate. I hope I am able to chat with many of you then and that this forum remains open as it has for the last few election cycles. I will personally say goodbye to friends who I have chatted and debated a lot and have grown to respect. Doniki80, Faye, ConservRep, Colin, Miles, KS21, Albaleman, Nkpatel,Dnul, Liberallover and a few other prominent posters. These posters seem to have given the most thoughtful insight this year and were more then fully engaged in this process. When I was at a loss I often looked to their views for much of my personal analysis. I will infact miss the suspenseful lead up to the election that engulfs the forum each year. However understanding politics as I do the race is never truly over, just further out perhaps. 2012 has already begun for the republicans as it had for the democrats in 2006/7. With this said, I leave you my friends. Best Wishes for a better economy and future for all of America! Together We Will Achieve This. Brandon aka Liberalrocks. Last Edit: 2010-11-19 @ 15:28:14

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-19 @ 19:56:57
Best wishes good friend and see you in 2011 Brandon!

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-19 @ 20:32:10
Best wishes, LR!!!!!!

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-23 @ 16:22:56
Did you just get a forum account?

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-23 @ 21:20:57
Yes you all can find me over on the forum! Im a newbie, but I suppose you gotta start somewhere.

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