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on: Today at 09:41:14 AM
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Started by GAinDC - Last post by Sir Mohamed
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Obviously disastrous, and I would expect polling in the summer and fall of 2025 that at least 50-55% would prefer Biden had won the election. So basically, like in 2017.
In terms of policy, Trump would be much more erratic and staff up his entire admin with a bunch of hardcore MAGA simps and yes-men. He'll move forward with more aggressive policies on issues like the border, and with several Trump judicial appointees from his 1st term, the courts may not serve as a good check on him.
Legislation obviously depends on the congressional majorities, but he could pass major stuff with small majorities this time around as the GOP House conference and senate caucus will be much more ideologically united compared to 2017/18, when there were the McCains of the world. Trump and the MAGA wing basically "cleaned house" over the last few cycles with just very few skeptics remaining in office.
Additionally, Trump will issue massive personnel overhaul in the executive and judicial branch and use the Justice Dept for retribution against his opponents. His AG almost certainly make Barr or Sessions look like part of Resistance.
On foreign policy, he'll end Ukraine aid which would likely cause Russia to win the war over the median run. Potentially this encourages Putin to go all in on the Baltics while Europe isn't ready to go to war against Russia.
Dems will probably do well in the 2026 midterms and may enter 2028 as the favorite. That said, the damage by that time might be close to irreversible. At least it would require a Dem POTUS with solid majorities for at least 2 full terms (which probably won't happen unless there's an entire realignment of politics and voter coalitions).
Pretty much this, and he will also again try to finally repeal Obamacare, which may actually pass this time around.
Additionally, he would definitely get away with all the pending trials and indictments.
It may not pass because he’ll have narrow majorities in the house and senate at best.
Small majorities might be enough since the moderate wing is pretty much gone from capitol. And in a scenario with Trump winning, I doubt the GOP has anything less than 52 seats in the senate (which they would need with Collins and Murk voting against).
They’ll still be some institutions lists like Mitch McConnell, Bill Cassidy, Shelley Moore Capito, Todd Young in the senate who could block some of Trump’s more radical ideas.
And in the house you have the likes of Fitzpatrick, Kean, Bacon, Valadao.
That's not many and none of them will be in leadership, so not much of a firewall, assuming they even serve as a firewall
Yup, also I was more specifically referring to the repeal of the ACA. Aspects of Project 2025 will for sure be implemented, but in its pure form though. I guess that will inevitably happen at some point as the document was written by right-wing ideologues and Think Tanks. Whenever the GOP holds the next trifecta. If not in 2025, probably in 2029. Latter is also scary, because the POTUS then might be more competent and less erratic than Trump. |
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2
on: Today at 09:39:56 AM
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Started by GAinDC - Last post by Tekken_Guy
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Obviously disastrous, and I would expect polling in the summer and fall of 2025 that at least 50-55% would prefer Biden had won the election. So basically, like in 2017.
In terms of policy, Trump would be much more erratic and staff up his entire admin with a bunch of hardcore MAGA simps and yes-men. He'll move forward with more aggressive policies on issues like the border, and with several Trump judicial appointees from his 1st term, the courts may not serve as a good check on him.
Legislation obviously depends on the congressional majorities, but he could pass major stuff with small majorities this time around as the GOP House conference and senate caucus will be much more ideologically united compared to 2017/18, when there were the McCains of the world. Trump and the MAGA wing basically "cleaned house" over the last few cycles with just very few skeptics remaining in office.
Additionally, Trump will issue massive personnel overhaul in the executive and judicial branch and use the Justice Dept for retribution against his opponents. His AG almost certainly make Barr or Sessions look like part of Resistance.
On foreign policy, he'll end Ukraine aid which would likely cause Russia to win the war over the median run. Potentially this encourages Putin to go all in on the Baltics while Europe isn't ready to go to war against Russia.
Dems will probably do well in the 2026 midterms and may enter 2028 as the favorite. That said, the damage by that time might be close to irreversible. At least it would require a Dem POTUS with solid majorities for at least 2 full terms (which probably won't happen unless there's an entire realignment of politics and voter coalitions).
Pretty much this, and he will also again try to finally repeal Obamacare, which may actually pass this time around.
Additionally, he would definitely get away with all the pending trials and indictments.
It may not pass because he’ll have narrow majorities in the house and senate at best.
Small majorities might be enough since the moderate wing is pretty much gone from capitol. And in a scenario with Trump winning, I doubt the GOP has anything less than 52 seats in the senate (which they would need with Collins and Murk voting against).
They’ll still be some institutions lists like Mitch McConnell, Bill Cassidy, Shelley Moore Capito, Todd Young in the senate who could block some of Trump’s more radical ideas.
And in the house you have the likes of Fitzpatrick, Kean, Bacon, Valadao.
That's not many and none of them will be in leadership, so not much of a firewall, assuming they even serve as a firewall
They’ll be enough of a firewall if the majorities are extremely narrow. Also have you not seen the dysfunctional narrow house majorities of this congress? How will they effectively govern? |
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3
on: Today at 09:38:02 AM
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Started by Meeker - Last post by lfromnj
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4
on: Today at 09:36:13 AM
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Started by WV222 - Last post by Sir Mohamed
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Insanely sad how pathetic the Republican Party has become. Lap dogs for a soon-to-be felon.
Who at this point would deny that this isn't a cult of personality? Imagine the GOP's reaction if Bill Clinton lost in 1996 and was subsequently indicted - among other things like an insurrection to keep him in power - for Whitewater and Dem congressional leaders showing up at his trial and in his forceful defense. |
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on: Today at 09:36:08 AM
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Started by GAinDC - Last post by GAinDC
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Obviously disastrous, and I would expect polling in the summer and fall of 2025 that at least 50-55% would prefer Biden had won the election. So basically, like in 2017.
In terms of policy, Trump would be much more erratic and staff up his entire admin with a bunch of hardcore MAGA simps and yes-men. He'll move forward with more aggressive policies on issues like the border, and with several Trump judicial appointees from his 1st term, the courts may not serve as a good check on him.
Legislation obviously depends on the congressional majorities, but he could pass major stuff with small majorities this time around as the GOP House conference and senate caucus will be much more ideologically united compared to 2017/18, when there were the McCains of the world. Trump and the MAGA wing basically "cleaned house" over the last few cycles with just very few skeptics remaining in office.
Additionally, Trump will issue massive personnel overhaul in the executive and judicial branch and use the Justice Dept for retribution against his opponents. His AG almost certainly make Barr or Sessions look like part of Resistance.
On foreign policy, he'll end Ukraine aid which would likely cause Russia to win the war over the median run. Potentially this encourages Putin to go all in on the Baltics while Europe isn't ready to go to war against Russia.
Dems will probably do well in the 2026 midterms and may enter 2028 as the favorite. That said, the damage by that time might be close to irreversible. At least it would require a Dem POTUS with solid majorities for at least 2 full terms (which probably won't happen unless there's an entire realignment of politics and voter coalitions).
Pretty much this, and he will also again try to finally repeal Obamacare, which may actually pass this time around.
Additionally, he would definitely get away with all the pending trials and indictments.
It may not pass because he’ll have narrow majorities in the house and senate at best.
Small majorities might be enough since the moderate wing is pretty much gone from capitol. And in a scenario with Trump winning, I doubt the GOP has anything less than 52 seats in the senate (which they would need with Collins and Murk voting against).
They’ll still be some institutions lists like Mitch McConnell, Bill Cassidy, Shelley Moore Capito, Todd Young in the senate who could block some of Trump’s more radical ideas.
And in the house you have the likes of Fitzpatrick, Kean, Bacon, Valadao.
That's not many and none of them will be in leadership, so not much of a firewall, assuming they even serve as a firewall |
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6
on: Today at 09:28:51 AM
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Started by Sir Mohamed - Last post by Sir Mohamed
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Inspired by a thread in the history section: If Reagan didn't survive the attempt on his life and HW Bush becomes prez in March 1981, how do you see the 1984 election ending up with Gary Hart as nominee? Assume he doesn't have a public scandal over an affair. Is this a real race or does Bush cruise to reelection?
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7
on: Today at 09:26:56 AM
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Started by WV222 - Last post by Illiniwek
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Insanely sad how pathetic the Republican Party has become. Lap dogs for a soon-to-be felon. |
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8
on: Today at 09:25:01 AM
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Started by wnwnwn - Last post by Red Velvet
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Not surprising, Peru is one of the most socially conservative countries in South America and this is something I could see the Brazilian Bolsonarist far-right supporting.
Funny how international observers never get why a more “conservative left” exists in countries that are more conservative. The gringo takes about Pedro Castillo were one of the most awful I’ve read, as if the mold for the entire left everywhere necessarily was the Western European progressive model.
I know current president is a blandish type of conservative, but my point is that it doesn’t sound like progressive politicians have much space in Peru. Hell, even here in Brazil they don’t, being limited mostly to educated urban centers. In Peru not even Lima tbh.
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