Politico: Biden admin isn’t fully convinced Ukraine can win, even with new aid

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Are you asking this out of genuine curiosity or out of SirWoodbury level Putin concern trolling? Not sure because if it’s the former, see the response above and if it’s the latter, pound sand m***erf***er

Curiosity, although I must admit that the tone of the latter response rather inclines me towards a skepticism of what you advocate for.

So instead of just doing a simple google search on proper Ukrainian spelling of Kyiv you’re going to be skeptical that it is the proper spelling because ForumLurker was snarky to you?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Are you asking this out of genuine curiosity or out of SirWoodbury level Putin concern trolling? Not sure because if it’s the former, see the response above and if it’s the latter, pound sand m***erf***er

Curiosity, although I must admit that the tone of the latter response rather inclines me towards a skepticism of what you advocate for.

So instead of just doing a simple google search on proper Ukrainian spelling of Kyiv you’re going to be skeptical that it is the proper spelling because ForumLurker was snarky to you?

I’m well aware of the arguments that I can find online (as should be rather obvious from my Acre/Akko question from the previous page): what I’m interested in hearing is why ForumLurker believes the proper spelling is Kyiv.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Are you asking this out of genuine curiosity or out of SirWoodbury level Putin concern trolling? Not sure because if it’s the former, see the response above and if it’s the latter, pound sand m***erf***er

Curiosity, although I must admit that the tone of the latter response rather inclines me towards a skepticism of what you advocate for.

So instead of just doing a simple google search on proper Ukrainian spelling of Kyiv you’re going to be skeptical that it is the proper spelling because ForumLurker was snarky to you?

I’m well aware of the arguments that I can find online (as should be rather obvious from my Acre/Akko question from the previous page): what I’m interested in hearing is why ForumLurker believes the proper spelling is Kyiv.

Because it’s the way Ukrainians do? It’s pretty simple

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kiev is a great city with a long history.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Are you asking this out of genuine curiosity or out of SirWoodbury level Putin concern trolling? Not sure because if it’s the former, see the response above and if it’s the latter, pound sand m***erf***er

Curiosity, although I must admit that the tone of the latter response rather inclines me towards a skepticism of what you advocate for.

So instead of just doing a simple google search on proper Ukrainian spelling of Kyiv you’re going to be skeptical that it is the proper spelling because ForumLurker was snarky to you?

I’m well aware of the arguments that I can find online (as should be rather obvious from my Acre/Akko question from the previous page): what I’m interested in hearing is why ForumLurker believes the proper spelling is Kyiv.

Because it’s the way Ukrainians do? It’s pretty simple

/snip

/snip

/snip

/snip

/snip

/snip

/snip

Acre in Israel is called Akko by both Jews and Arabs, but in the West we call it Acre. This is mostly for historical reasons: Acre was the traditional Western name -- but so was Kiev. Given that, should we call Acre Akko as you now do Kiev Kyiv?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, there are few things I respect less than placename shibbolethism. It's a cancer in the discourse. There's not much more to say on the topic besides that.

[7,052,770]

I don't really know if this Acre/Akko thing is true or not, but if the Israeli government issued a proclamation that they wanted it to be exclusively called Akko by English speakers, we should and would make the transition.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Apples and oranges, “Acre” is rooted in Latin and Greek spelling of the city, the West spelling of “Kiev” is because that was what Russia called it. Again a simple google search on the two places names would of shown the difference

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

It can be either Kyiv or Kiev in English, while in Russian its Kiyev.

[All Along The Watchtower]

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees

That’s a bad idea. The Russians would call bullsh-t on that and attack Ukraine again. They can’t have any wiggle room for another “military special operation.”

[It’s so Joever]

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees

That’s a bad idea. The Russians would call bullsh-t on that and attack Ukraine again. They can’t have any wiggle room for another “military special operation.”

Then it’s World War Three. We aren’t blinking this time.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees

That’s a bad idea. The Russians would call bullsh-t on that and attack Ukraine again. They can’t have any wiggle room for another “military special operation.”

Then it’s World War Three. We aren’t blinking this time.

Then why make it informal? Why not have Ukraine formally join NATO, or sign a formal mutual defense treaty?

[BlueSwan]

I think the solution is for NATO to kick Russia out of Ukraine and hope that Putin and his people treasure their lives enough to not start a nuclear war.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is the only take you need to bother with on this topic:

No spin, no bullsh*t, just a straight analysis of the situation.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think the solution is for NATO to kick Russia out of Ukraine and hope that Putin and his people treasure their lives enough to not start a nuclear war.

Besides the risk, this is not going to happen, if Biden, Sunak, Scholz and Macron wanted to. Because in neither of these or any NATO country, there's nearly enough support. Neither congress nor any parliament is going to vote for this.

The solution is more aid, not just in terms of material and equipment, also in terms of training Ukrainain forces. We also need to close sanction loopholes and pressure more countries to turn on Russia.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is the only take you need to bother with on this topic:

No spin, no bullsh*t, just a straight analysis of the situation.

Ah a fellow Perun fan, nice to see you’re a man of culture as well

[Open Source Intelligence]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

I mainly work on Russia-Ukraine issues for my job, so I have a relatively good view of the situation, but I do admit I am biased in favor of Ukraine. Take of that what you will.

Current sitrep, going by the general consensus in DC:
- Russia's initial goals for the war of overthrowing Zelensky and installing a Russia-friendly government in Kyiv are off the table. Russia lost. Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done.
- Russia's scaled-back goals of annexing and controlling Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts (plus Crimea) are still within reach, but only at a very high cost to Russia.
- Both Russia and Ukraine are struggling to maintain the necessary manpower and equipment to keep their various military campaigns going.
- Russia doesn't want to transition to a full wartime economy, and Putin sees doing so as risking significant political blowback, but does still have that option.
- Ukraine more or less has already transitioned to a wartime economy, and is relying on Western support to maintain its military viability for at least a period of a few more years when it might (but not necessarily) be able to build a domestic defense industry to rival Russia's non-wartime defense industry.
- Currently, Russia has the initiative in the war with Ukraine having to respond to Russia's operations, which is good news for Russia, but also an effect of the latest Western support mostly having not arrived yet.
- DC seems pretty confident the new aid package will stop Russia's advances and give Ukraine a chance at some new counter-offensive operations.

- Since the failure of Ukraine's summer offensive last year, Ukraine's strategy has focused less on regaining territory and more on destroying Russia's equipment and manpower and damaging Russia's economy (with things like drone strikes on oil refineries).
- Ukraine has seen some success in this, as evidenced by a sharp drop in Rusdia's oil production and dwindling levels of equipment in storage (i.e. Ukraine is destroying tanks faster than Russia can build new ones, but again, Russia is not operating on a wartime economy).

- But bottom line, this is now a war of political will with Putin thinking he can outlast Western willingness to provide support and Ukraine thinking they can hold the line until either Russia's economy collapses (not off the table, but something that has been predicted many times with only a little to show for it) or Putin faces some sort of serious internal challenge, like we saw last year with the Wagner insurrection.
- Ukraine is also calculating that any resolution to the conflict that does not leave Russia in a worse position to where it was in February 2022 will inevitably be only temporary, since Russia's incentive will be to just rebuild its list tanks, recruit and train new soldiers, and try for Kyiv again knowing what didn't work last time. This calculus might be changed if Ukraine joins NATO, but Ukraine will not be able to join NATO with active combat on its territory.

For what it's worth from my perspective, I think the running assumption in DC is that the war will inevitably last for another year or two and potentially into the 2030s. I was surprised recently hearing from one group of analysts that, even if Russia continues to make territorial gains, it won't be able to support its forces for more than another ~18 months. I've also heard people say it's entirely down to who wins the US election in November. Which is not entirely a campaign pitch on my part, but is mostly just to underscore that, from my perspective, DC is still mostly "in it to win it" for Ukraine and, I think contrary to what sometimes is claimed, would rather Ukraine defeat Russia than degrade Russia in a bloody, hot stalemate.

To the 1st bolded, I dispute this considering we're more than 2 years into this conflict and Ukraine is just now instituting a draft after reports of manpower shortages on the front lines for about 6 months.

To the 2nd bolded, what kind of timeline we talking about? The Ukrainians per the Washington D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War are expecting a Russian summer offensive.

To the 3rd bolded, that implies Ukraine has written off the territory they've lost or don't believe they'll ever take it back without external actors. When combined with your last statement of "they'll never be allowed in NATO with active combat on their territory" (which is the correct take), perhaps they willingly cede the territory in exchange. I don't think territory though is the Russian goal and the NATO part is more the real one. Russia's goal in my opinion is to do a version of what the U.S. did to Mexico in the Mexican-American War of Mexico at the end were still allowed to exist, but were completely dismantled from ever being allowed to form a challenge to American hegemony in the region.

To the 4th bolded, I think back to the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts for precedent. First canary on this front is not in November, it's the EU Parliament elections in June. They're elections that most are agnostic about and have been used in some areas to be purely a vote to punish people. And all signs are the establishment parties will decrease to where the Parliament's center-left/center-right/liberal grand coalition that has governed forever might not have the votes to guarantee a majority. As far as the U.S., Biden if he wins could easily turn himself into Lyndon Johnson I feel if this drags on a few years if he lives, and if he doesn't live who really knows what Kamala Harris thinks and who her National Security Advisor/State Secretary/Defense Secretary will be. Putin's old if you want to look at "maybe he'll die", but he's still younger than both Biden and Trump. I'd like a better plan however to deal with Russia that's not "cross our fingers, maybe there's a coup".

To the final bolded, how does Ukraine at this point defeat Russia without foreign troops deployed or declaration of war on our part against the Russian Federation? There's hope and then there's realism. Victory at this point has been defined PUBLICLY as Russian withdrawal from all occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. If it's privately defined as something else by either the Biden or Zelensky administrations, that needs to start becoming public. Right now the Ukrainians have a 1000-mile front line with not enough men to defend the whole thing all at once, and they just now passed a draft. What the hell? Those are not the actions of a state planning on taking back Donbass and Crimea, which tells you that victory as currently defined publicly is not realistic. Meanwhile open source satellite images tell you the Russians have made multiple defensive line fortifications for the areas they've taken over.

[Open Source Intelligence]

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees

That’s a bad idea. The Russians would call bullsh-t on that and attack Ukraine again. They can’t have any wiggle room for another “military special operation.”

Then it’s World War Three. We aren’t blinking this time.

Then why make it informal? Why not have Ukraine formally join NATO, or sign a formal mutual defense treaty?

It's kind of Taiwan logic.

"Don't recognize them."

"Okay, we won't." - then proceed to have all the hallmarks of recognition without it being official

[All Along The Watchtower]

Strategic ambiguity re: Taiwan makes sense because that was the price of establishing diplomatic relations with the PRC, and China hasn’t (yet) occupied Taiwan. We’ll see how much longer that holds up though.

Meanwhile, in 2014 Russia invaded and annexed part of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, launched a “low-intensity” conflict in another section of eastern Ukraine, and the West sent a strongly worded letter of concern, sanctioned a few Russian oligarchs, a few years later sent the Ukrainians some Javelin missiles, and…not much else over the course of eight years. When it came to Ukraine, the Kremlin saw NATO (including the US) as being mostly full of hot air.

A security guarantee to a country must be understood by any would-be aggressor as credible.  Somehow I doubt that ambiguity or “informality” would be taken seriously as such—it certainly wasn’t to Russia pre—February 2022!

[Ljube]

I think the solution is for NATO to kick Russia out of Ukraine and hope that Putin and his people treasure their lives enough to not start a nuclear war.

I think the solution is to split Ukraine in half.
The Russians get their half, and the West keeps the western half.
Then the reduced Ukraine gets admitted to NATO.

[Obama24]

I think the solution is for NATO to kick Russia out of Ukraine and hope that Putin and his people treasure their lives enough to not start a nuclear war.

I think the solution is to split Ukraine in half.
The Russians get their half, and the West keeps the western half.
Then the reduced Ukraine gets admitted to NATO.

That would never happen. Ukraine would never support it, thus, neither would the Biden administration.

[Ljube]

I think the solution is for NATO to kick Russia out of Ukraine and hope that Putin and his people treasure their lives enough to not start a nuclear war.

I think the solution is to split Ukraine in half.
The Russians get their half, and the West keeps the western half.
Then the reduced Ukraine gets admitted to NATO.

That would never happen. Ukraine would never support it, thus, neither would the Biden administration.

I am not talking about the incompetent Biden administration here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think the solution is for NATO to kick Russia out of Ukraine and hope that Putin and his people treasure their lives enough to not start a nuclear war.

I think the solution is to split Ukraine in half.
The Russians get their half, and the West keeps the western half.
Then the reduced Ukraine gets admitted to NATO.

That would never happen. Ukraine would never support it, thus, neither would the Biden administration.

I am not talking about the incompetent Biden administration here.

Calling anyone “incompetent” after your big brain take is serious pot and kettle energy

[Ljube]

I think the solution is for NATO to kick Russia out of Ukraine and hope that Putin and his people treasure their lives enough to not start a nuclear war.

I think the solution is to split Ukraine in half.
The Russians get their half, and the West keeps the western half.
Then the reduced Ukraine gets admitted to NATO.

That would never happen. Ukraine would never support it, thus, neither would the Biden administration.

I am not talking about the incompetent Biden administration here.

Calling anyone “incompetent” after your big brain take is serious pot and kettle energy

It is obvious that they are incompetent. They have set the world on fire.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

It is obvious that they are incompetent. They have set the world on fire.

Whose Pandemic Was It Anyway? (Obama's, of course.)