Fox News Election Night Theme : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88je-dAzZPMBaier : Good evening ladies and gentlemen, I am Brett Baier of the Fox News Election Center and with me today is Martha McCallum and Bill Hemmer. Welcome to our coverage of the 2028 South Carolina Primary for the Democratic Party. Tonight, will Vice President Harris win the key state that will jump start her campaign after it recently started falling, will Senator Warnock do the impossible and win, or will another surprise occur tonight that will utterly rock the race? Now, usually, we would cover Iowa and New Hampshire, but in 2024, the Democratic Party changed up their primary schedule to be less white and more representative of America. With what happened a week ago in Iowa for the Republicans, anything is on the table.
McCallum : Ain't that the truth, Brett? We are only minutes away from the polls closing in the Palmetto state and we have heard reports that turnout for the Democrats is extremely low, with only about a quarter of Democrats in the state showing up to vote and around fifteen percent of non-Democrats voting as well. The South Carolina primary for the Republicans is weeks away but this might be showing us the first real sign of trouble for the Democrats this election cycle. Furthermore, it seems that the recent Impeachment announcement by Speaker Green has severely hurt Vice President Harris' chances in the state, so let's to Bill Hemmer at the data center to break down the numbers. Bill?
Hemmer : Well, Martha, it ain't looking good for the Vice President. We will get exit polls from the state very soon but recent polling has shown that following the announcement, she has taken a major hit, allowing Senator Warnock and, most surprisingly, Governor Shapiro, to fill in the gap as her campaign continues to collapse. If she doesn't either win here tonight, Warnock, Shapiro, Whitmer, and Buttigieg might smell blood in the water. According to recent polling in the state, the Impeachment Announcement has affected their view of Harris a lot, 65 % to 29 %, and when asked negatively, it is even worse, 89 % to 7 %. When polled, Black Voters are almost split evenly, with 43 % saying they're voting for Harris, 35 % saying they'll vote for Warnock, 11 % saying they'll vote for Shapiro, and the rest being scattered between Whitmer, Buttigieg, and other minor candidates. If Harris loses South Carolina, that will be big news and will bring up questions on whether or not she can win the primaries and it will be big news for another reason. While Biden lost his first three contests in 2020, yes, he wasn't the incumbent Vice President, just the former Vice President. The last time the incumbent Vice President lost the first contest in his party's primaries ever since the adoption of the national primary system was back in 1988, when Republican Vice President George Herbert Walker Bush lost Iowa by double digits and placing third in the contest to Kansas Senator and 1996 Nominee Bob Dole. Yes, Bush ultimately won the primary in the end, meaning Harris can too, but Bush didn't have as many of the weaknesses of Harris. Reagan was popular while Biden isn't, the economy back then was doing decently well while right now, the economy is an utter wreck, the World was at relative peace back then while now it is in utter chaos, and the list goes on. So while tonight might not exactly spell doom for the Harris campaign, it can be a sign of things to come if something unexpected happens.
Baier : With numbers like those, I'm sure the Vice President is praying for a miracle tonight. It is now 8 PM and we can now announce that the first polls have closed in South Carolina and we are seeing a surprise right now when looking at the exit polls : Warnock is leading Harris by a decent amount with Shapiro coming in with a relatively close third. We also have a look at the impeachment question and black voters and the numbers don't look pretty for Harris. If these numbers continue, the Democrats might be in for a long primary battle.
South Carolina Democratic Primary (1 % reported) - 75 delegates [15 % Needed for Delegates]
Raphael Warnock (GA) : 37 %
Kamala Harris (CA) : 31 %
Josh Shapiro (PA) : 17 %
Gretchen Whitmer (MI) : 9 %
Pete Buttigieg : 3 %
Others (Scattered) : 1 %
Undecided : 2 %
How is Vice President Harris' Impeachment Trial affecting your vote?
A Lot : 67 %
Not Much : 25 %
Unsure/Undecided : 8 %
What is your view of Vice President Harris with the Impeachment trial in mind?
Negative : 73 %
Positive : 15 %
Neutral : 7 %
Undecided/Unsure : 5 %
Vice President Harris' Approval Rating
Disapprove : 81 %
Approve : 14 %
Undecided/Unsure : 5 %
Black Voters
Raphael Warnock (GA) : 41 %
Kamala Harris (CA) : 35 %
Josh Shapiro (PA) : 15 %
Gretchen Whitmer (MI) : 6 %
Pete Buttigieg (IN) : 1 %
Others (Scattered) : 1 %
Unsure/Undecided : 1 %
Baier : It is now 8:30 PM and the first true results are coming in and it is now looking good for Vice President Harris at all. Warnock has a double digit lead over her while Shapiro only trails her by single digits in a seeming over performance from the exit polls that were given to us. Looking at these numbers, both Warnock and Shapiro are doing better than expected with black voters while Harris is floundering with them.
South Carolina Democratic Primary (25 % reported) - 75 delegates [15 % Needed for Delegates]
Raphael Warnock (GA) : 39 %
Kamala Harris (CA) : 23 %
Josh Shapiro (PA) : 21 %
Gretchen Whitmer (MI) : 9 %
Pete Buttigieg : 5 %
Others (Scattered) : 3 %
Baier : It is now 9 PM EST and Senator Warnock continues to lead Vice President Harris, but that lead his shrinking by the minute while Shapiro is stagnating between 17 and 23 % of the vote. Former Transportation Secretary Buttigieg, however, has traded places with Governor Whitmer in the meantime. This doesn't seem to be going like how the White House planned for them to go and now the Vice President is likely concerned about the rest of the primaries going forward.
South Carolina Democratic Primary (50 % reported) - 75 delegates [15 % Needed for Delegates]
Raphael Warnock (GA) : 33 %
Kamala Harris (CA) : 27 %
Josh Shapiro (PA) : 23 %
Pete Buttigieg : 11 %
Gretchen Whitmer (MI) : 5 %
Others (Scattered) : 1 %
Baier : Now at 9:30 PM and we can announce that it seems Warnock is likely to win the South Carolina primary when all the votes have been counted because no matter what the Vice President gains, he just keeps doing better. Of course, this can change and we will continue to cover the race until it has reached its conclusion. In the meantime, Whitmer and Buttigieg have traded places again and Shapiro is staying above the required fifteen percent threshold for Delegates likely to everyone's shock.
South Carolina Democratic Primary (75 % reported) - 75 delegates [15 % Needed for Delegates]
Raphael Warnock (GA) : 37 %
Kamala Harris (CA) : 31 %
Josh Shapiro (PA) : 21 %
Gretchen Whitmer (MI) : 7 %
Pete Buttigieg : 3 %
Others (Scattered) : 1 %
Baier : It is now 10 PM on the east coast and stand by as we make a key race alert...With all the votes counted, we can announce with certainty that United States Senator Raphael Warnock from the state of Georgia will defeat Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris from California and narrowly carry the state of South Carolina and bring home 30 Delegates. At the same time, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has placed above the required 15 % to get delegates and will come home with 16 Delegates while Harris brings home 29 Delegates. What a disaster tonight for the White House and I am getting reports that Harris is shifting all her attention to Nevada and Mississippi following this loss, giving up Michigan to its former Governor, Shapiro, and even Buttigieg. Wow, what a night.
South Carolina Democratic Primary (100 % reported) - 75 delegates [15 % Needed for Delegates]
Raphael Warnock (GA) : 35.79 % ✔ (30 Delegates)
Kamala Harris (CA) : 33.91 % (29 Delegates)
Josh Shapiro (PA) : 19.57 % (16 Delegates)
Gretchen Whitmer (MI) : 7.31 %
Pete Buttigieg : 3.13 %
Others (Scattered) : 0.29 %
Baier : Tonight has ended with an unexpected surprise for the Democrats as their first contest has went to a challenger to the incumbent Vice President. Now, with her abandoning Michigan for Nevada and Mississippi, it seems she knows she needs to win at least one of the first four states to justify staying in the race, otherwise her campaign will crumble into nothing as her challengers pick her apart. Meanwhile, Whitmer is just focusing on winning her home state while Shapiro is aiming for a strong second in Nevada and either strong thirds or seconds in Michigan and Mississippi to repeat the success of South Carolina. Buttigieg, meanwhile, needs a strong performance in Michigan to justify staying in the race himself, stating that if he doesn't have third, he might as well drop out of the race because then his campaign would be effectively useless. Brett, care to analyze these results?
Hemmer : With pleasure. So, when we go to the map, what do we see? A lot of green, a lot of red, some gold, and only a little bit of magenta here or there, but no purple. We now break it down by race and there we are, Warnock and Harris performed best in black areas while Shapiro did best in white areas. Now we break it down by education. Undergrads voting hard for Shapiro, High School or lower voting hard for Warnock, and Harris winning college grads with a degree. Next, we go to income and we see that the poorer you are, the less likely you are to vote for the Vice President and that's the story of tonight. Warnock won because poor, under educated, and I'm not calling them stupid, African Americans voted for the Senator by a wide margin while Harris only attracted affluent voters. Shapiro mainly won his support in ancestrally democrat areas where there are some democratic white voters left, though they are becoming a dying breed.
Baier : Interesting results. Going forward, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the cycle turns out because of this. I'm Brett Baier of Fox News and join us a week from now when we cover the New Hampshire Republican Primary and Nevada Democratic Caucuses. Goodnight, everyone.
