In the Trump era, suburbs around the nation swifted leftward. Even in Southern states like Texas and Georgia.
But not in Tennessee. Already more conservative than suburbs in the rest of the nation, Tennessee's suburbs either stayed the same or went right!
In Memphis, Democrats made no gains in the suburbs of Germantown, Collierville and Bartlett. Nevermind neighboring bedroom suburbs in Tipton or Fayette counties lol. Both went right!
Outside of Nashville, Rutherford County went from 60-34% to 57-41%. But that was mostly 2016 third party voters going Democrat. Williamson County went 64-29% to 62-34%. Once again, it was gains from third party votes
Tennessee was an odd state. Trump made further gains in rural areas. Memphis and Nashville went left. Suburbs stayed mostly the same. This was the opposite of the rest of the nation.
Statewide, it went from 35-61% to 37-61%
I think unlike Georgia or Texas, Tennessee's high growth comes from upper middle class families and retirees. Tennessee is more like Florida when it comes to migration patterns
I'm not sure if you can say most of the Dem gain in Rutherford and Williamson were mostly due to third party voters, it was a pretty solid overall Dem trend in both. With that said, both counties are still very Republican and quite a ways from being competitive. As mentioned considerably whiter than most southern suburbs that have become Democratic or competitive and has some exurban aspects as well.
I think his point was largely that Trump got a similar share in 2016 and 2020. The 2016 trends were largely R-3rd Party, while the 2020 trends were largely 3rd Party-D, at least in Williamson County. So, you could kind of argue that they were two sides of the same trend.
Add to that that Republicans did extremely well in Williamson and Rutherford Counties in 2022, and you have some uncertainty about the trends going forward.
