From what I've seen in polls - a snap Scottish election now would likely result in some sort of Labour minority government
That’s the median outcome for a snap election at the minute - Labour a few seats behind the SNP, but with a narrow unionist majority at Holyrood that picks Anas Sarwar over Humza Yousaf in the formal vote for First Minister.
I say Humza Yousaf - word on the street is that he’s standing down on Monday morning, so who knows where things go next…
Presumably SNP high command pushes for a progressive in the Sturgeon-Yousaf mould, who can attempt to re-establish relations with the Greens, to get them through to 2026 without an early dissolution.
Labour's embrace of the Cass report may be cynical but in the Scottish context it was brilliant. It means there is a nationalist majority and a progressive one, but no progressive nationalist majority as long as Labour votes with the Tories and SNP social cons on that issue. So any new leader will have that problem if Labour continues to follow the London line on the topic.
