Question:
Of the following Oregon candidates for the US Senate, who will most likely get your vote: Republican Gordon Smith, Democrat Jeff Merkley, Constitution party candidate David Brownlow, or someone else? Very or somewhat?
VOTED FIRST REGISTERED TO LIKELY
GENDER PARTY COUNTY AGE VOTING HISTORY TIME VOTE VOTE PRES
————————— —————————————— ———————————————————————— ———————————————————————— ———————————————————————— —————————————— —————————————— —————————
HAVE JOHN
FE WILL C/E SO CO 18- 25- 35- 45- BFOR '06- NOT BFOR AFTR BRCK MC
Total MALE MALE DEM REP OTHR PDX VLY OR OR AST 24 34 44 64 65+ 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 0/4 2006 '08 VOTD 2006 2006 2006 OBMA CAIN
————— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ————
Total Participants 499 275 224 212 174 113 201 138 48 59 32 31 54 82 221 111 67 67 119 202 44 415 40 44 415 31 53 241 171
55% 45% 42% 35% 23% 40% 28% 10% 12% 6% 6% 11% 16% 44% 22% 13% 13% 24% 40% 9% 83% 8% 9% 83% 6% 11% 48% 34%
Gordon Smith 35% 33% 37% 17% 69% 18% 32% 36% 48% 32% 34% 26% 30% 32% 34% 45% 28% 37% 38% 37% 25% 37% 28% 25% 36% 39% 26% 10% 75%
Gordon Smith - Very 27 26 29 11 56 13 24 28 44 24 22 19 26 23 25 39 22 33 30 29 14 29 22 14 29 26 19 6 63
Gordon Smith - Somewhat 8 8 8 5 13 4 7 7 4 8 13 6 4 9 9 6 6 4 8 8 11 7 5 11 7 13 8 3 12
Jeff Merkley 36% 38% 33% 59% 6% 38% 40% 37% 17% 34% 38% 35% 37% 39% 38% 29% 40% 21% 34% 42% 30% 35% 50% 30% 35% 39% 38% 64% 5%
Jeff Merkley - Very 26 25 27 41 5 31 29 30 8 27 22 26 20 27 30 21 25 18 23 31 27 25 35 27 26 29 28 47 4
Jeff Merkley - Somewhat 10 13 6 18 2 7 11 7 8 7 16 10 17 12 8 8 15 3 11 11 2 10 15 2 10 10 9 17 1
David Brownlow 4% 2% 6% 2% 5% 6% 2% 6% 4% 5% - 3% - 7% 4% 4% 3% 1% 8% 3% 2% 4% 3% 2% 4% 6% 2% 1% 4%
David Brownlow - Very 2 1 4 0 3 4 2 3 2 2 - 3 - 5 2 1 1 1 5 0 2 2 - 2 2 - 2 0 2
David Brownlow - Somewhat 2 1 2 1 2 3 0 3 2 3 - - - 2 2 3 1 - 3 2 - 2 3 - 2 6 - 1 2
Miscellaneous 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% - - 5% - 3% 4% - 2% 2% - 7% 3% 1% - 2% 3% - 2% - - 1% 2%
Miscellaneous candidate 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 - - 5 - 3 4 - 2 2 - 7 3 1 - 2 3 - 2 - - 1 2
Undecided/Refused 23% 24% 22% 21% 17% 37% 22% 22% 31% 24% 28% 32% 30% 22% 22% 21% 28% 33% 18% 17% 43% 22% 17% 43% 22% 16% 34% 24% 14%
Don't know/Undecided 22 23 20 18 17 36 21 21 31 20 25 32 28 18 22 19 25 33 17 16 41 20 15 41 21 16 32 24 14
Refused 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 - 3 3 - 2 4 0 2 3 - 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 - 2 0 -
Chi Square 14.02 189.85 39.12 34.96 62.07 22.29 14.24 215.22
.081 .001 .181 .329 .001 .134 .581 .001

Poll Demographics

About this Poll
Riley Research Associates conducted an omnibus survey among registered Oregon voters (RV) regarding their opinions on a variety of current issues. The scientific telephone poll was conducted among 499 randomly selected voters throughout Oregon. A sample of 499 provides accuracy to within +/-4.39 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Data collection took place between October 10th and 20th 2008.
Because this poll took place during a presidential election year and in anticipation of a high turnout, all registered voters were considered eligible. Likely voters are defined in the cross tabulations based on their date of registration (before 2006, 2006, and since 2006). New voters are also identified in terms of their first recorded vote and number of times they have voted in the past. Current results are also compared to similar questions asked in previous scientific surveys.
Sample demographics were compared against the demographics of registered voters to ensure results are consistent with current Oregon voter registration profiles. Regional breakouts were defined for cross tabulations, and classified into the following regions:
􀂃 Portland Metro: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington
􀂃 Willamette Valley: Benton, Lane, Linn, Marion, Polk, Yamhill
􀂃 Southern: Douglas, Jackson, Josephine
􀂃 Central / Eastern: Baker, Crook, Deschutes, Gilliam, Grant, Harney, Hood River, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Malheur, Morrow, Sherman, Umatilla, Union, Wasco, Wallowa, Wheeler
􀂃 Coast: Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln, Tillamook