Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:2

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	157
Ind	0
Tos	70

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+9	0	+112	0	0	0	20	2	252	+112
Rep	0	0	0	-9	0	-112	22	3	174	-112
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
93	49	37	4	3

Analysis

Just changed the percentages a little bit from the 1st map. I haven't flipped MO or NC - don't know if it's realistic but believe in that Obama could overperform. Else - let's just see what's gonna happen tonight (and - in my European time zone - tomorrow morning).

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: rosin (I-DNK) 2008-11-21 @ 11:36:37
Well.. with the the present results it looks as if my outcome prediction has been false in three "states" - MO, IN and NE-2, while I've missed the percentages these three times as well as 13 others - AK, ND, GA, NE, NE-1, KS, HI, OR, IA, FL, MD, NJ and CT. Total: 93/112. Not very bad - especially not on the state level - but not good either.

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-22 @ 07:42:37
And with those races as close as they were, your outcome was indeed very plausible.

By: rosin (I-DNK) 2008-12-05 @ 10:10:29
Oh - I see that - according to Leip - Alaska has went under 60% for McCain. That makes it an extra point for me. 94/112.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	1	0	177	T	382
2012 President	56/56	50/56	106/112	94.6%	1	0	1	T	760
2010 Senate	36/37	23/37	59/74	79.7%	1	1	63	T	456
2008 President	53/56	40/56	93/112	83.0%	2	0	139	T	1,505
Aggregate Predictions	177/185	133/185	310/370	83.8%

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