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Date of Prediction: 2016-07-15 Version:211

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep19
 
Ind0
 
Non16
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos5
 
Non16
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+4+1+50007310+5
Rep000-4-1-518119-5
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic153449
Republican193049
Independent022
 pie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-15 @ 04:59:08 prediction Map
Democrats have a greater that 50 percent chance of getting 50 US Senate Seats in November.<br /> Solid Democratic<br /> 37)CA-Harris-D<br /> 38)HI-Schatz-D<br /> 39)NY-Schumer-D<br /> 40)VT-Leahy-D<br /> 41)CT-Blumenthal-D<br /> 42)OR-Wyden-D<br /> 43)MD-Van Hollen-D<br /> 44)WA-Murray-D<br /> Likely Democratic<br /> 45)CO-Bennet-D<br /> Lean Democratic<br /> 46)IL-Duckworth-D<br /> 47)WI-Feingold-D<br /> 48)IN-Bayh-D<br /> Tossup Democratic<br /> 49)NV-Cortez Masto-D<br /> 50)NH-Hassan-D<br />
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-15 @ 05:05:04 prediction Map
Democratic US Senate candidates that will benefit from Hillary Clinton coattails. <br /> 51)OH-Strickland-D<br /> 52)FL-Murphy-D<br /> 53)PA-McGinty-D<br /> 54)NC-Ross-D<br />
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-15 @ 16:23:06 prediction Map
Number of scenarios resulting in a Democratic US Senate Majority.<br /> 1)Democrats lose NV and Trump-R wins the Presidential Election.<br /> Democrats pick up IL,WI,IN,NH,OH,and PA.<br /> 2)Democrats lose NV and Clinton-D wins the Presidential Election.<br /> Democrats pick up IL,WI,IN,NH,and OH or PA.<br /> 3)Democrats win NV and Trump-R wins the Presidential Election.<br /> Democrats pick up IL,WI,IN,NH,and OH or PA.<br /> 4)Democrats win NV and Clinton-D wins the Presidential Election.<br /> Democrats pick up IL,WI,IN,and NH. <br /> AZ might be a Democratic pickup if McCain-R loses in the Republican primary. <br /> Democrats pick up IL,WI,IN,and AZ if Clinton-D wins the Presidential Election and Democrats hold onto NV.<br /> Democrats pick up IL,WI,IN,AZ,and NH if Clinton-D wins the Presidential Election and Democrats lose NV or Trump-R wins the Presidential Election and Democrats hold onto NV.<br /> Democrats pick up IL,WI,IN,AZ,NH and OH or PA if Trump-R wins the Presidential Election and Democrats lose NV.
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-15 @ 17:51:02 prediction Map
US Senate Seniority List if Kaine (D-VA) becomes VP,McCain (R-AZ) loses in primary or general,Burr (R-NC) loses in general,Blunt (R-MO) loses in general,Portman (R-OH) loses in general,Toomey (R-PA)loses in general, Rubio (R-FL) loses in general,and Ayotte (R-NH) loses in general,<br /> 1)Leahy (D-VT)<br /> 2)Hatch (R-UT)<br /> 3)Cochran (R-MS)<br /> 4)Grassley (R-IA)<br /> 5)McConnell (R-KY)<br /> 6)Shelby (R-AL)<br /> 7)Feinstein (D-CA)<br /> 8)Murray (D-WA)<br /> 9)Inhofe (R-OK)<br /> 10)Wyden (D-OR)<br /> 11)Roberts (R-KS)<br /> 12)Durbin (D-IL)<br /> 13)Reed (D-RI)<br /> 14)Sessions (R-AL)<br /> 15)Collins (R-ME)<br /> 16)Enzi (R-WY)<br /> 17)Schumer (D-NY)<br /> 18)Crapo (R-ID)<br /> 19)Nelson (D-FL)<br /> 20)Carper (D-DE)<br /> 21)Stabenow (D-MI)<br /> 22)Cantwell (D-WA)<br /> 23)Murkowski (R-AK)<br /> 24)Graham (R-SC)<br /> 25)Alexander (R-TN)<br /> 26)Cornyn (R-TX)<br /> 27)Thune (R-SD)<br /> 28)Isakson (R-GA)<br /> 29)Menendez (D-NJ)<br /> 30)Cardin (D-MD)<br /> 31)Sanders (I-VT)<br /> 32)Brown (D-OH)<br /> 33)Casey (D-PA)<br /> 34)Corker (R-TN)<br /> 35)McCaskill (D-MO)<br /> 36)Klobuchar (D-MN)<br /> 37)Whitehouse (D-RI)<br /> 38)Tester (D-MT)<br /> 39)Barrasso (R-WY)<br /> 40)Wicker (R-MS)<br /> 41)Udall (D-NM)<br /> 42)Shaheen (D-NH)<br /> 43)Warner (D-VA)<br /> 44)Risch (R-ID)<br /> 45)Merkley (D-OR)<br /> 46)Bennet (D-CO)<br /> 47)Gillibrand (D-NY)<br /> 48)Franken (D-MN)<br /> 49)Manchin (D-WV)<br /> 50)Coons (D-DE)<br /> 51)Moran (R-KS)<br /> 52)Boozman (R-AR)<br /> 53)Hoeven (R-ND)<br /> 54)Paul (R-KY)<br /> 55)Blumenthal (D-CT)<br /> 56)Lee (R-UT)<br /> 57)Heller (R-NV)<br /> 58)Schatz (D-HI)<br /> 59)Scott (R-SC)<br /> 60)Baldwin (D-WI)<br /> 61)Flake (R-AZ)<br /> 62)Donnelly (D-IN)<br /> 63)Murphy (D-CT)<br /> 64)Hirono (D-HI)<br /> 66)Heinrich (D-NM)<br /> 67)King (I-ME)<br /> 68)Cruz (R-TX)<br /> 69)Warren (D-MA)<br /> 70)Fischer (R-NE)<br /> 71)Heitkamp (D-ND)<br /> 72)Markey (D-MA)<br /> 73)Booker (D-NJ)<br /> 74)Capito (R-WV)<br /> 75)Peters (D-MI)<br /> 76)Cassidy (R-LA)<br /> 77)Gardner (R-CO)<br /> 78)Lankford (R-OK)<br /> 79)Cotton (R-AR)<br /> 80)Daines (R-MT)<br /> 81)Rounds (R-SD)<br /> 82)Perdue (R-GA)<br /> 83)Thillis (R-NC)<br /> 84)Ernst (R-IA)<br /> 85)Sasse (R-NE)<br /> 86)Sullivan (R-AK)<br /> 87)Kaine Replacement (D-VA)<br /> 88)Feingold (D-WI)<br /> 89)Bayh (D-IN)<br /> 90)Van Hollen (D-MD)<br /> 91)Strickland (D-OH)<br /> 92)Kirkpatrick (D-AZ)<br /> 93)Murphy (D-FL)<br /> 94)Duckworth (D-IL)<br /> 95)Hassan (D-NH)<br /> 96)Harris (D-CA)<br /> 97)McGinty (D-PA)<br /> 98)Ross (D-NC)<br /> 99)Kander (D-MO)<br /> 100)Kennedy (R-LA)<br />
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2016-07-15 @ 23:35:58 prediction Map
If Warren (D-MA) becomes the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee and wins in November along with Clinton-D, Democrats need a net gain of 5 US Senate Seats.<br /> Democrats lose NV, Democrats pick up IL,WI,IN,NH,OH,and PA. MA goes Republican for 5 months-assuming Baker-R is allowed to appoint replacement. <br /> Democrats win NV, Democrats pick up IL,WI,IN,NH,and OH or PA. MA goes Republican for 5 months-assuming Baker-R is allowed to appoint replacement.<br />

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 20 4 10T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 221 4 164T362
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T382
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T300
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T343
Aggregate Predictions 227/251 161/251 388/502 77.3% pie



Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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