Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:55
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 68)
Analysis
2016 Final Senate Prediction:<br /> <br /> Democrats net two seats, GOP retains control of Senate regardless of who wins at the top of the ballot for president. This needless to say is not the result that the Democrats hoped for, and this sets them up badly for what might be a brutal 2018 midterm election. It merits pointing out that, contrary to sentiment in some corners, Donald Trump simply was not a drag on the down ballot ticket, Republicans are coming out to vote for GOP Senate candidates, Trump is outpacing some of the down ballot races, voters want a check on Hillary Clinton, and the Republicans in the toughest spots, e.g. Toomey and Joe Heck, got there in part by not endorsing Trump in the first place. It also bears noting that, the decision by many prominent big league conservative donors to pour money into Senate races, as opposed to the presidential has had the salubrious out of limited GOP losses to a net of two, when many projections had had the GOP losing 5+ seats.<br /> <br /> These races are extremely close, and could determine the whole thing: Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Missouri.<br /> <br /> First to New Hampshire, where incumbent Republican Ayotte is in the fight of her life against Democrat Maggie Hassan. Both incumbents are popular, both are well known, and a lot of money is being spent here. The race has see-sawed back and forth several times, but Ayotte should win by a nose.<br /> <br /> Pennsylvania presents a marquee race of this cycle. Democratic challenger Katie McGinty has come out of nowhere to within a sliver of beating Toomey. This one is very close and the GOP really needs a hold here. Toomey will edge McGinty, but this one could require a recount.<br /> <br /> North Carolina is, along with Missouri, one of the surprises of the cycle. Republicans didn't really expect to need to help incumbent Sen. Burr here. Race has stayed close and Burr will win, but not by much.<br /> <br /> Indiana: After Coats retired, it was assumed the GOP would have not problem holding this seat. Then entered former incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh. Bayh started off well ahead, but Todd Young, Republican, closed the gap and appears to be pulling ahead at the last minute. Lots of ad money pouring in here.<br /> <br /> At the beginning of the cycle, it looked like Russ Feingold was going to easily defeat incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, Republican. Feingold was well ahead for most of the cycle, and Johnson, did not prepare well for what by all accounts was going to be a tough race. However, lots of outside ad money, has made the difference. It is much closer, but Johnson is still somewhat behind. Not so in Illinois where Republican Kirk is going down to landslide defeat. These are the two Democrat pickups.<br /> <br /> Missouri is another surprise race and is very, very close. Blunt is in serious trouble, and it will be a test of if GOP money made the difference. Calling it tentatively for Blunt.<br /> <br /> Then in Nevada, another close race and one that was the only good GOP pickup chance. Safe to say Republican Joe Heck blew it here. Many Trump voters are upset with if, and may not vote for him. This race is going down to the wire, and if the 2012 race was any indication, every vote matter here. Heck could still pull it off in what is a close race, but as of now, calling it...barely...for Democrat Cortez-Masto at the buzzer.
Prediction History
Comments History
- show
Version History Member Comments User's Predictions
User Info
Links
|
Back to 2016 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home