Most likely "safe" state to flip?

[ijohn57s]

Jersey is the most likely of those states to flip.

[awfernan2002]

I think that people are kidding themselves about New Joisey...big-time.  Gore won by 16 points I think, and Kerry will have a closer connection to the state, if anything (Catholic, "ethnic", Northeast Amtrak corridor).  JFK won over 90% in the (albeit meaningless) NJ primary.

I voted for NC, but even there, Bush has the edge.  It's not even clear if Edwards will be dispatched to do any substantial campaigning there.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC is like NJ.. it won't flip....

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

LoL

Kerry winning Virginia Beach!!!!

Next thing you know Bush will take San Francisco!

AND LOUDON!

There goes Los Angeles for Bush...

Duh.  Flip Virginia Beach back to Bush.

Hey, LA county went Reagan TWICE!  Of course, things have turned around so dramatically in Cali that I half expect the O.C. to go Kerry.

Virginia Beach will go Democrat eventually.

[??????????]

The strong military presence in Virginia will prevent it from flipping to Kerry. But I can't say about it next time around.

[MODU]

Loudoun will normally trend democratic.  VA Beach/Norfolk/DC Metro area are about as democratic as they will ever get, since those key areas are military residents, and they cycle in and out every few years.  Your only region which may constantly trend or grow more democratic are the Richmond and Roanoke areas, since they are established, non-military cities.  The rest of the Commonwealth is rural, and will most-likely stay Republican.

[Gustaf]

I think NJ won't flip at all, very tiny chance.

Out of those listed, I'd say VA and NC, not sure which one is closest. Any of those could concievably flip, though I don't expect them to.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My guess is that Kerry will get nuked in non-DC suburbia while winning in most non-civil war influenced rural areas.
Seems to be the way the Upper South is shaping up this year...