North Macedonia elections and politics (presidential & legislative elections May 8 2024)

[CumbrianLefty]

So overall, which of the big "blocs" has more reason to be pleased by this result?

[bigic]

Nice growth for Levica, especially under a FPTP system.

The system is not FPTP. But it's not very kind to small parties, as the size of the 6 constituencies is just 20, with an effective threshold of ~5% in each of them. So for example Levica got 2 seats out of 120 (1,666... %) with ~4% of the vote.

[Beagle]

Unfortunately it seems that the electoral commission suffered a heavy DDOS attack that may or may not have resulted in wrong tallies being counted/uploaded/reported. In a municipality next to the Bulgarian border, where there are virtually no Albanians and very few Roma, apparently shows as a AA/A landslide with 67.86% of the vote and DUI with 21.43%. This is very likely a report from an Albanian municipality, but with the website down, it is difficult to check. So it may be a while before things are known for certain.

As things stand, though, both blocs are declaring victory, it should be slightly easier for SDSM to form a government - but nothing can be taken for granted in North Macedonian politics.

[bigic]

Levica rejects the possibility of coalition with SDSM.
https://360stepeni.mk/apasiev-zasega-nemame-kontakti-so-nitu-edna-partija-no-so-sdsm-nema-shto-da-pregovarame/

82 complaints were submitted to the Electoral Commission - a huge majority of them is from Alliance for Albanians, alleging that their main Albanian rival, DUI, has committed election fraud.
https://360stepeni.mk/alijansata-podnela-74-prigovori-za-glasaneto-vmro-dpmne-dva-za-sumiraneto-na-rezultatite/

[bigic]

According to preliminary results:

The best municipality for the SDSM coalition is Centar Župa (5. constituency), a western, rural, ethnic Turkish municipality near Debar - 59,88% (+17,1% compared to 2016 SDSM+Besa+"VMRO for Macedonia", in 2016 it was won by the VMRO-DPMNE coalition).
In 2016 it was Centar (1.), a municipality in Skopje - 57,19% (50,9% in 2020).
Note: In 2016 the SDSM coalition didn't include Besa and the coalition parties of "VMRO for Macedonia" (VMRO-NP etc.).

The best municipality for the VMRO-DPMNE coalition is the eastern Skopje suburb of Ilinden (3.), with 62,92% of the votes (+3,54%).
In 2016 it was Zrnovci (3.), a rural municipality in the east of the country near Kočani - 62,55% (56,38% in 2020)

The best municipality for ethnic Albanian DUI _{(excluding municipalities split into multiple constituencies, such as Kičevo (northern part (6.) 76,34%, +8,58%))} is ethnic Turkish (!) rural Plasnica (5.), in the western part of the country - 74,02% (+20,18%)
The same municipality was the best for DUI in 2016.

The best municipality for the ethnic Albanian coalition of Alliance for Albanians (AA) and Alternative is rural Bogovinje (6.) in the west of the country, between Tetovo and Gostivar - 43,03%  (+30,18% compared to AA in 2016)
In 2016 the best municipality for AA was rural Vrapčište (6.) in the west of the country, near Gostivar - 21,48% (41,7% in 2020)

The best municipality for Levica (The Left) is Aerodrom (1.), a municipality in Skopje - 11,1% (+8,34%).
In 2016 it was Centar (1.), a municipality in Skopje - 3,02% (8,9% in 2020.).

The best municipality for Democratic Party of Albanians is Studeničani (1.), a municipality in Skopje - 20,54% (+4,67%).
In 2016 it was Lipkovo (2.) in the north of the country, near Kumanovo - 17,78% (7,52% in 2020).

The best municipality for ethnic Albanian Besa in 2016. was Želino (41,85%).
In 2020 DUI has won there, while the coalition We Can (SDSM+Besa+etc.) has 33,77% of the vote (-8,08% compared to Besa alone, -12,38% compared to Besa+SDSM+"VMRO for Macedonia")

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

According to preliminary results:

The best municipality for the SDSM coalition is Centar Župa (5. constituency), a western, rural, ethnic Turkish municipality near Debar - 59,88% (+17,1% compared to 2016 SDSM+Besa+"VMRO for Macedonia", in 2016 it was won by the VMRO-DPMNE coalition).
In 2016 it was Centar (1.), a municipality in Skopje - 57,19% (50,9% in 2020).
Note: In 2016 the SDSM coalition didn't include Besa and the coalition parties of "VMRO for Macedonia" (VMRO-NP etc.).

The best municipality for the VMRO-DPMNE coalition is the eastern Skopje suburb of Ilinden (3.), with 62,92% of the votes (+3,54%).
In 2016 it was Zrnovci (3.), a rural municipality in the east of the country near Kočani - 62,55% (56,38% in 2020)

The best municipality for ethnic Albanian DUI _{(excluding municipalities split into multiple constituencies, such as Kičevo (northern part (6.) 76,34%, +8,58%))} is ethnic Turkish (!) rural Plasnica (5.), in the western part of the country - 74,02% (+20,18%)
The same municipality was the best for DUI in 2016.

The best municipality for the ethnic Albanian coalition of Alliance for Albanians (AA) and Alternative is rural Bogovinje (6.) in the west of the country, between Tetovo and Gostivar - 43,03%  (+30,18% compared to AA in 2016)
In 2016 the best municipality for AA was rural Vrapčište (6.) in the west of the country, near Gostivar - 21,48% (41,7% in 2020)

The best municipality for Levica (The Left) is Aerodrom (1.), a municipality in Skopje - 11,1% (+8,34%).
In 2016 it was Centar (1.), a municipality in Skopje - 3,02% (8,9% in 2020.).

The best municipality for Democratic Party of Albanians is Studeničani (1.), a municipality in Skopje - 20,54% (+4,67%).
In 2016 it was Lipkovo (2.) in the north of the country, near Kumanovo - 17,78% (7,52% in 2020).

The best municipality for ethnic Albanian Besa in 2016. was Želino (41,85%).
In 2020 DUI has won there, while the coalition We Can (SDSM+Besa+etc.) has 33,77% of the vote (-8,08% compared to Besa alone, -12,38% compared to Besa+SDSM+"VMRO for Macedonia")

What are all these places like?

[bigic]

Total number of complaints is over 2000 - most of them are from Levica, claiming that they were robbed of 3 more MPs.
Live stream of the Electoral Commission deciding on some of the complaints: https://youtu.be/USvjNFJZdNk

[bigic]

All complaints were rejected, for two reasons - most of them due to lack of evidence, and some of the complaints were submitted by an unauthorized person.
https://sdk.mk/index.php/makedonija/dik-gi-odbi-site-2-142-prigovori-za-izborite-od-koi-1-982-od-levitsa/

Complainants could appeal the decision in court.
Edit: The Left has announced that it will do this. https://lokalno.mk/apasiev-utre-sleduvaat-tuzhbite-do-upraven-sud/

[Beagle]

Zaev gets to form a SDSM-DUI coalition government. The historic compromise is that DUI may fulfill their promise and have an Albanian prime minister of their choice but for a 100 days or less. I wasn't aware of the fact, but apparently under the present legislation the sitting government is supposed to step down 100 days before the next scheduled election, leaving the conduct of the election to a 'technical' non-partisan(ish) government. The agreement now is that this 'technical' government will be scrapped, but instead for the 100 or so days before the vote DUI will get to name the prime minister.

Now whether a 61/120 SDSM-DUI majority will be sufficient is very much in question, especially considering how SDSM's coalition partners from Besa exist entirely as an opposition to DUI's dominance among Albanians, but maybe Zaev has a few more surprises to spring.

[bigic]

Besa will also be a part of the new government, as well as minor Democratic Party of Albanians (1 MP). So the government will have the support of 62 MPs, if nobody defects.
And the main opposition to DUI is now the coalition of "Alliance for Albanians" and "Alternative" (Besa splinter), which is already calling the government "illegitimate".

[Beagle]

Today was round 2 of the (North) Macedonian local elections, and while the results are still trickling in, everything points to a rather comprehensive* VMRO-DPMNE win. Crucially, VMRO stand to (re-)gain Skopje and PM Zoran Zaev, in an apparently futile attempt to mobilize his supporters, has promised to step down if his SDSM lose the mayorship of the capital. There should be no snap election, as a yet-unnamed SDSM minister is supposed to take over the government with the present coalition.

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Although Macedonian local elections have a history of landslides - in both 2009 and 2013 VMRO won 56 mayorships to SDSM's 7 and 4, respectively, while in 2017 SDSM won 57 mayorships to 5 for VMRO. This time SDSM will at least be in the double digits, but many of the municipalities they held on to are tiny

Paradoxically, this loss may actually strengthen the SDSM-DUI coalition 2 seat majority, as some of the Albanian Alliance MPs - VMRO's erstwhile coalition partners - are rather sore after VMRO ran/endorsed a number of non-Alliance candidates in Albanian plurality municipalities which were supposed to be their domain and are apparently planning to switch to the government side. Although the Albanian spectrum in Macedonian politics is in a constant flux (this time there was a rather discernible everyone-but-DUI unity, which led to Besa winning Tetovo, the biggest Albanian city), so this swich may yet come to nothing, as indeed may Zaev's resignation (DUI leader Ali Ahmeti has rather pointedly said that their coalition agreement was for a government headed by Zaev).

[PSOL]

Levica is having a field day.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1452671944654995466

They got at least 50 councilor positions this election too. In all likelihood, while Levica now has a more offensive position, I can see the SDSM government either surviving through including Levica in the coalition government or relying on them to act as outside supporters of a minority government. Else, right now it seems like deadlock is also a possibility.

[bigic]

In all likelihood, while Levica now has a more offensive position, I can see the SDSM government either surviving through including Levica in the coalition government or relying on them to act as outside supporters of a minority government. Else, right now it seems like deadlock is also a possibility.

I neither think Levica will support the government, nor that the government needs their support. Levica, despite (formally) being a left-wing party, is closer to VMRO-DPMNE than to SDSM.

BTW, Zaev has resigned from the positions of PM and party president due to the poor result of his party.

[bigic]

VMRO-DPMNE intends to assemble a new governing coalition led by them. (But who could join them?) If they don't succeed, they will call for a new parliamentary election.
https://www.novamakedonija.com.mk/makedonija/politika/%D0%B2%D0%BC%D1%80%D0%BE-%D0%B4%D0%BF%D0%BC%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D1%9C%D0%B5-%D1%81%D0%B5-%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5-%D0%B4%D0%B0-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8-%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0/

Before the meeting of SDSM with the other parties in the government, some of them (NSDP, LDP, DOM, DPA - 6 MPs in total) have already announced that they are staying in the SDSM-led government and that they have no intention of joining an alternative majority.
https://360stepeni.mk/dom-ldp-nsdp-i-dpa-ostanuvaat-vo-parlamentarnoto-mnozinstvo/

[PSOL]

In all likelihood, while Levica now has a more offensive position, I can see the SDSM government either surviving through including Levica in the coalition government or relying on them to act as outside supporters of a minority government. Else, right now it seems like deadlock is also a possibility.

I neither think Levica will support the government, nor that the government needs their support. Levica, despite (formally) being a left-wing party, is closer to VMRO-DPMNE than to SDSM.

BTW, Zaev has resigned from the positions of PM and party president due to the poor result of his party.

Yes, a secular and pro-LGBT party is closer to VMRO than the neolibs at SDSM. Excellent analysis.

[bigic]

So Levica didn't form a coalition with VMRO-DPMNE in Skopje City Council? And they didn't support Gordana Siljanovska Davkova, the VMRO-DPMNE candidate, in the 2019 presidential election?

[bigic]

Besa has switched sides and it's now a part of a new parliamentary majority with the VMRO-DPMNE bloc, AA/A and Levica.
https://m.dw.com/mk/%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%98%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B5-%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE-%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE-%D0%BC%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE-%D1%81%D0%BE-%D0%B1%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B0/a-59738291?maca=maz-rss-maz-pol_makedonija_timemk-4727-xml-mrss

[crals]

In all likelihood, while Levica now has a more offensive position, I can see the SDSM government either surviving through including Levica in the coalition government or relying on them to act as outside supporters of a minority government. Else, right now it seems like deadlock is also a possibility.

I neither think Levica will support the government, nor that the government needs their support. Levica, despite (formally) being a left-wing party, is closer to VMRO-DPMNE than to SDSM.

BTW, Zaev has resigned from the positions of PM and party president due to the poor result of his party.

Yes, a secular and pro-LGBT party is closer to VMRO than the neolibs at SDSM. Excellent analysis.

So it was an excellent analysis indeed.

[Beagle]

The acronym snafu is a perfect tl:dr description of the present state of (North) Macedonian politics:

- Zaev never formally submitted his resignation - first promising it was going to happen towards the end of this week after the coalition had settled on a new PM and today rescinding even this promise but...

- As previously posted, Besa switched to the VMRO camp and a vote of no confidence is scheduled for tomorrow, which was going to pass with 61/120 votes, but...

- As one of the Albanian MPs threatened to switch after discovering that the new VMRO coalition was going to contain Levica (one of whose main planks is anti-Albanianism), the government suddenly looked safe, but...

- Levica and a number of other unsavory characters withdrew their signatures from the no confidence vote request (while still announcing their intention to bring the SDSM-DUI government down), allowing the Albanians to save face and still join the vote against the government, but...

- tonight a meeting of the government coalition was held - and apparently a couple of Besa MPs attended, which would mean a split in the party if true, and since the opposition coalition can't afford to lose even one vote, the situation is pretty volatile.

Mark Rutte is in Skopje and Macedonian media report that he has promised Zaev that the EU accession talks will start next month, despite the Bulgarian objections... as long as Zaev and his relatively pro-European majority is in place. So tomorrow will be a fateful day.

[PSOL]

It’s a disgrace that N. Macedonia joined NATO against the wills of the people, but joining the EU is a death knell for N. Macedonian sovereignty. The SDSM needs to get out of power and throw out these awful deals.

[bigic]

- tonight a meeting of the government coalition was held - and apparently a couple of Besa MPs attended, which would mean a split in the party if true, and since the opposition coalition can't afford to lose even one vote, the situation is pretty volatile.

As alleged by Menduh Thaçi, leader of Democratic Party of Albanians and one of the participants of the meeting. Besa denies that their representatives were present at the meeting.

It’s a disgrace that N. Macedonia joined NATO against the wills of the people, but joining the EU is a death knell for N. Macedonian sovereignty. The SDSM needs to get out of power and throw out these awful deals.

A huge majority of North Macedonians support EU and NATO membership. Yes, the Prespa Agreement is controversial, but it doesn't mean that North Macedonians are anti-EU and anti-NATO.

[MaxQue]

It’s a disgrace that N. Macedonia joined NATO against the wills of the people, but joining the EU is a death knell for N. Macedonian sovereignty. The SDSM needs to get out of power and throw out these awful deals.

NATO is better than the VRRO Moscow puppet.

[Beagle]

- tonight a meeting of the government coalition was held - and apparently a couple of Besa MPs attended, which would mean a split in the party if true, and since the opposition coalition can't afford to lose even one vote, the situation is pretty volatile.

As alleged by Menduh Thaçi, leader of Democratic Party of Albanians and one of the participants of the meeting. Besa denies that their representatives were present at the meeting.

The Macedonian parliament is now in the 3rd hour of a 10 minute recess. The government parties have left the sitting, so the opposition needs 61 MPs in the chamber to start proceedings. Two VMRO deputies who tested covid positive/quarantined showed up dressed in spacesuit like protective gear, but...

one of the Besa deputies did not show up. He has posted on facebook that since the EU and US have shown willingness to open accession talks in December, now is not the time to plunge the country in a crisis, so he is not going to support the motion of no confidence. If the vote fails today and unless the MP in question receives a substantial bribe an epiphany, or another government MP does not cross the aisle, this is what is going to happen, the government will be safe for another 90 days (the minimal time between motions of no confidence under the Macedonian constitution).

[DavidB.]

Big bump. The government in North Macedonia resigned yesterday and there will be a general election on the 8th of May - perhaps the thread title could be changed accordingly. Speaker of Parliament Talat Xhaferi will serve as acting Prime Minister; he will be the first ethnic Albanian to hold this position.

In the 2021 census, 58% of the population were ethnically Macedonian (probably a slight undercount, with some Macedonians not stating any ethnicity) and 24% ethnically Albanian, the remainder belonging to minorities such as Turks, Roma and Serbs.

Compared to some of the neighboring countries, Macedonian politics is relatively easy to understand - most ethnic Macedonians vote either for right-wing VMRO-DPMNE (nationalist, conservative, with a pro-EU wing and an anti-EU wing; in power from 2006-2016) or for center-left SDSM, the Social Democrats, who have been in power since 2016. But neither are able to win a majority on their own because most ethnic Albanians vote for Albanian parties; therefore, VMRO-DPMNE or SDSM need Albanian parties to build coalitions.

The West supports Macedonian integration into Euroatlantic structures. North Macedonia entered NATO in 2020 and has long been a candidate for EU membership. Under the VMRO-DPMNE governments, little progress was made in this regard: their Macedonian nationalism angered nationalists in Greece (who think 'Macedonia' is a Greek concept and think Macedonia being named that way was an attack on Greek territorial integrity, hence the name change to North Macedonia) and nationalists in Bulgaria (who think Macedonians - and their language, and their culture - are Bulgarian and want North Macedonia to accept the alleged Bulgarian roots of their identity). Western governments have a strong preference for SDSM governments in North Macedonia, as they are far more willing to compromise on issues like these than VMRO-DPMNE.

As for the upcoming election, VMRO-DPMNE are leading in the polls but the question is whether they will be able to find Albanian allies to build a majority, which seems doubtful. If not, we could see a rerun of an SDSM government with some Albanian partners.

[Storr]

"SKOPJE, North Macedonia (AP) — North Macedonia ’s parliament speaker on Wednesday formally set early parliamentary and presidential elections in the spring as the country makes a bid to join the European Union.

Following opposition pressure, North Macedonia’s main political parties agreed in December to organize general elections on May 8, two months early. A caretaker government was appointed last month.

Whoever forms the next government will face pressure from the European Union to approve unpopular constitutional changes as part of the country’s bid to join the bloc."

https://apnews.com/article/north-macedonia-early-elections-spring-eu-b147edad49399ef5bc463404309f2b7b