NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[wbrocks67]

LV since they weren't posted:

H2H:
AZ: Trump +6, 49-43
GA: Trump +9, 50-41
MI: Biden +1, 47-46
NV: Trump +13, 51-38
PA: Trump +3, 48-45
WI: Trump +1, 47-46

Multi-way:
AZ: Trump +9, 44-35-8
GA: Trump +8, 42-34-8
MI: Biden +3, 42-39-7
NV: Trump +14, 44-30-11
PA: Trump +4, 41-37-9
WI: Trump +1, 40-39-8

Favorabilities:
AZ: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -20 (39-59)
GA: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -21 (39-60)
MI: Biden -13 (43-56), Trump -19 (40-59)
NV: Trump +4 (51-47), Biden -27 (36-63)
PA: Trump -9 (45-54), Biden -15 (42-57)
WI: Biden -11 (44-55), Trump -14 (42-56)

[wbrocks67]

The favorabilities also show the whackness of NV/GA/AZ IMO - Biden's in no commanding position obviously, but Trump is not at net 0 or positive favorability in those 3 states, while simultaneously being down close to or at double digits in WI/PA/MI.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, realistic numbers in PA/WI/Mi but outlandish numbers in AZ/GA/NV, never seen this before. Ever.

Nevada's #s seem insane until you realize though that the Party ID w/ leaners is literally R+13. The other states are all realistic (PA is a tad too red at R+3) but everything is somewhat realistic for that except NV.

The numbers may look a bit extreme, but I think there are enough polls to show that Biden has a problem in the sunbelt

Either the polls just aren’t getting a good sample of young and nonwhite voters who will come home to Biden in the end, or Trump is really gaining with these groups (if not through persuasion then by turnout)

I would disagree with that - we haven't gotten enough polling to really tell, especially in AZ/NV. Nevada has been a true dearth except for Morning Consult basically, while Arizona, we literally just got a Biden +1 poll the other day.

GA has been more mixed - Trump has had an edge, but just recently we've gotten numerous polls with Trump only up 1-3 (WSJ/Emerson/Marist/CBS), so no, I don't buy these Trump +10 polls that have Trump at 20% of the black vote and winning young voters by nearly 20%.

[GAinDC]

LV since they weren't posted:

H2H:
AZ: Trump +6, 49-43
GA: Trump +9, 50-41
MI: Biden +1, 47-46
NV: Trump +13, 51-38
PA: Trump +3, 48-45
WI: Trump +1, 47-46

Multi-way:
AZ: Trump +9, 44-35-8
GA: Trump +8, 42-34-8
MI: Biden +3, 42-39-7
NV: Trump +14, 44-30-11
PA: Trump +4, 41-37-9
WI: Trump +1, 40-39-8

Favorabilities:
AZ: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -20 (39-59)
GA: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -21 (39-60)
MI: Biden -13 (43-56), Trump -19 (40-59)
NV: Trump +4 (51-47), Biden -27 (36-63)
PA: Trump -9 (45-54), Biden -15 (42-57)
WI: Biden -11 (44-55), Trump -14 (42-56)

Hmmm, those favorability numbers make me wonder if they got samples that are too R.

Trump’s approval was always underwater as president and now it’s even? Trump has not done anything since 2020 that would endear him to a bunch of voters who never approved of him. It’s not like he’s Jimmy Carter and building houses for charity.

[Devils30]

Wow, realistic numbers in PA/WI/Mi but outlandish numbers in AZ/GA/NV, never seen this before. Ever.

Nevada's #s seem insane until you realize though that the Party ID w/ leaners is literally R+13. The other states are all realistic (PA is a tad too red at R+3) but everything is somewhat realistic for that except NV.

Biden is not going to be 10 points better in WI than NV, GA, AZ. But the overall result is just concerning. The younger non-whites are foreign policy apathetic and tired of the Dems elitist attitude toward cost of living issues.

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if the MI RV poll was a miscalculation or something? The #s are truly outlandish, and it jumps all the way from Trump +7 among RV to Biden +1 among LV. It also only has Trump +2 among RV in a multi-way, compared to Trump +7 among H2H.

I mean, that one has Trump winning young voters by nearly 30%, Biden winning seniors by 20%, and Trump winning 30% of the black vote. Given the LV #s, I wonder if there was some data input error somewhere or something with that one....?

[wbrocks67]

18-29 year olds RV:
Arizona: Biden +24
Wisconsin: Biden +24
Pennsylvania: Biden +1
Nevada: Trump +13
Georgia: Trump +18
Michigan: Trump +27

I just lol

[wbrocks67]

LV since they weren't posted:

H2H:
AZ: Trump +6, 49-43
GA: Trump +9, 50-41
MI: Biden +1, 47-46
NV: Trump +13, 51-38
PA: Trump +3, 48-45
WI: Trump +1, 47-46

Multi-way:
AZ: Trump +9, 44-35-8
GA: Trump +8, 42-34-8
MI: Biden +3, 42-39-7
NV: Trump +14, 44-30-11
PA: Trump +4, 41-37-9
WI: Trump +1, 40-39-8

Favorabilities:
AZ: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -20 (39-59)
GA: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -21 (39-60)
MI: Biden -13 (43-56), Trump -19 (40-59)
NV: Trump +4 (51-47), Biden -27 (36-63)
PA: Trump -9 (45-54), Biden -15 (42-57)
WI: Biden -11 (44-55), Trump -14 (42-56)

Hmmm, those favorability numbers make me wonder if they got samples that are too R.

Trump’s approval was always underwater as president and now it’s even? Trump has not done anything since 2020 that would endear him to a bunch of voters who never approved of him. It’s not like he’s Jimmy Carter and building houses for charity.

This - all of these states voted within 3% of each other in 2020. Yes, they have different dynamics but you'd expect somewhat similar results. There's no way you range from Trump +4 fav to Trump -19 fav among these states. The PA/WI/MI results at least comport with everything we've seen in real life, the others don't. Even in 2022, we saw similar results for Trump among all of these swing states. Take the Arizona exit poll, which had Trump at 42/57 in 2022. And that was with a Republican electorate too!

I know I'll get flack from the usual suspects but at this point I don't care - if people truly think Trump is winning by 6-13 points in AZ, NV, GA... come on now.

[Comrade Funk]

It's only September 2023. Things will change by 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

[wbrocks67]

Was curious how the averages of the 6 swing states compared to 2020:

18-29 year olds
2020: Biden +24 (61-37)
2024: Biden +4 (47-43)

30-44 year olds
2020: Biden +8 (53-45)
2024: Trump +8 (49-41)

45-64 year olds
2020: Trump +9 (54-45)
2024: Trump +13 (53-40)

65+
2020: Trump +5 (52-47)
2024: Biden +2 (48-46)

White voters
2020: Trump +15 (57-42)
2024: Trump +14 (54-40)

Black voters
2020: Biden +79 (89-10)
2024: Biden +52 (70-18)

Latino voters
2020: Biden +25 (61-36)
2024: Biden +5 (47-42)

Males
2020: Trump +8 (53-45)
2024: Trump +18 (55-37)

Females
2020: Biden +10 (55-45)
2024: Biden +6 (49-43)

You will be shocked to find that White voters once again are behaving almost exactly like 2020 but nonwhite voters are not. Also continues the polling trend of Biden doing better with older voters but worse with young voters.

[wbrocks67]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

[Sir Mohamed]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

According to most polls there has been a shift though… especially in the rust belt.

[SnowLabrador]

To those saying Trump hasn’t endeared himself to any new voters since 2020, he doesn’t need to. He just needs young voters to sit this election out. Which they will.

[Skill and Chance]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I think it is time to move GA out of the tossup category.

(Polling would indicate we should for NV to, but that polling notoriously overstates the GOP there)

2020 +GA means Trump needs only PA, or a combination of any two other swing states (all combinations but WI and NV)  

[kwabbit]

LV since they weren't posted:

H2H:
AZ: Trump +6, 49-43
GA: Trump +9, 50-41
MI: Biden +1, 47-46
NV: Trump +13, 51-38
PA: Trump +3, 48-45
WI: Trump +1, 47-46

Multi-way:
AZ: Trump +9, 44-35-8
GA: Trump +8, 42-34-8
MI: Biden +3, 42-39-7
NV: Trump +14, 44-30-11
PA: Trump +4, 41-37-9
WI: Trump +1, 40-39-8

Favorabilities:
AZ: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -20 (39-59)
GA: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -21 (39-60)
MI: Biden -13 (43-56), Trump -19 (40-59)
NV: Trump +4 (51-47), Biden -27 (36-63)
PA: Trump -9 (45-54), Biden -15 (42-57)
WI: Biden -11 (44-55), Trump -14 (42-56)

Weird, inconsistent LV screens (between states). Actually similar to last time though. Don't know why an LV screen would help Biden 8 points in MI and harm him 3 points in WI and no change in PA.

I'd expect LV screens to be neutral in the Sunbelt and help Biden 2-3 points in the Rust Belt. I wouldn't necessarily expect sampling error to affect this that much. I guess getting more Trump-disengaged and more Biden-engaged than typical would lead to this result, but the huge LV screen in MI particularly both times is curious.

[wbrocks67]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

I think people need to take a break and touch grass. We are so in it that it's hard to understand the regular person's POV - we are still half a year out from this election. 6 months is a very long time - most average people are not even thinking about the election at this point.

I'm not even saying that to suggest that Biden will get some surge by the end (could happen, could not!) but sometimes we need to stand back and realize that 6 months is an eternity.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

Atlasia was so into Allred it was overblown

[CookieDamage]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

I think people need to take a break and touch grass. We are so in it that it's hard to understand the regular person's POV - we are still half a year out from this election. 6 months is a very long time - most average people are not even thinking about the election at this point.

I'm not even saying that to suggest that Biden will get some surge by the end (could happen, could not!) but sometimes we need to stand back and realize that 6 months is an eternity.

No offense but this is what the losing side says. We should expect the worse atp and just hope it doesn't happen.

[Illiniwek]

I went from accepting that Biden was going to lose, to being fairly confident he would pull it off. I am now thinking I need to accept the fact that Biden is going to lose. It's going to be an ugly scene next year.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think it is time to move GA out of the tossup category.

(Polling would indicate we should for NV to, but that polling notoriously overstates the GOP there)

2020 +GA means Trump needs only PA, or a combination of any two other swing states (all combinations but WI and NV)  

To be fair, Trump also had good leads in GA early in the 2020 cycle and Warnock's 2022 win gives me some hope. Trump for sure is favored in GA as of today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All we need it WI, PA, MI and NV yeah NV +12 R no

[GAinDC]

I think it is time to move GA out of the tossup category.

(Polling would indicate we should for NV to, but that polling notoriously overstates the GOP there)

2020 +GA means Trump needs only PA, or a combination of any two other swing states (all combinations but WI and NV)  

To be fair, Trump also had good leads in GA early in the 2020 cycle and Warnock's 2022 win gives me some hope. Trump for sure is favored in GA as of today.

I was actually looking at the Georgia polls in 2020, and Trump was still getting big leads well into the Spring and early Summer. It wasn't until the late Summer and early Fall that the state started to look more competitive.

At the time, we chalked it up to Biden opening up a big lead, but we now know that wasn't the case. Perhaps in 2020 and this year as well, it's just certain D-leaning groups in the sunbelt not tuning in until late in the campaign.