For me I just struggle to see how Trump gets those sorts of margins out of AZ and GA.
In Arizona, reverting back to a 2016 margin would have to run through Maricopa and Pima counties which I just struggle to seek, especially since I think Biden is poised to maintain or grow his support in most of the Pheonix and Tucson suburbs.
Similar situation in GA; where does this 6% swing right come from? I think it's unlikely metro Atlanta which is almost half the state swings right yet alone 6% to the right. He's really going to have to get some massive swings out of rural GA that I just don't buy are possible given Rs already get 80-90% of the white vote in many places and Southern Blacks are some of the most loyal to Dems. I think a lot of Trump's strong margins in GA polling comes from polls showing Biden only getting 60% of the black vote when that is unrealistically low in any circumstance. Blacks are ~30% of the GA electorate in a normal election so polls being off by >40 point margins with black voters could have pretty large impacts on the topline, even if there are other smaller polling errors that work in Biden's favor.\
The only recent elections we have with Rs winning GA by >5% margin are from Republicans who ran on being at least somewhat anti-Trump and gained back a lot of support in the Atlanta suburbs. Trump is not going to be doing that.
The shift map below (2020 Pres --> 2022 Sen) is a leftwards shift of the state. Metro Atlanta is really a beast, and even pretty modest leftwards shifts can be hard to offset.
The other states seem more reasonable. Nevada has factors that make me see larger swings more possible there. MI/WI/PA are pretty close to 2016/2020 results and within the MOE. NC's margin is perahps a bit too much for Trump but he already won the state in 2020.
Your conclusion is somewhat tautological. If you don't permit Trump to make gains in majority Black areas of Atlanta, then of course you find him not being able to gain 6 pts from 2020.
The polling average is predicated on huge Trump gains among Black voters. A supermajority Black county like Clayton County will be shifting 10+ points to the right, and accompanying Black swings will bring Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, and the Southern Atlanta suburbs right. The latter might still shift left if there's enough demographic change though. In 2020, Biden only lost marginal ground with Atlanta Black voters, while White voters zoomed left. If Biden is now losing significant ground with Black voters, then the Atlanta trends will stop. There was no counterbalance in 2020.
If there's big Trump gains among Black voters, Atlanta will not be trending left. If you don't think any Atlanta counties will have Trump gains, then Black voters are not shifting right.
My baseline expectation is that I don't buy Biden getting <75% of the black vote which is what most of these Trump +6-10 GA polls are relying on to give him that kind of margin. I do buy Trump can win the state and that black turnout could be an issue for Biden, but a Trump win be pretty marginal imo. I don't see black voters suddenly lurching 20+ points right after literally decades of relative political stability and not really having any noticeable shifts in the midterms.
Also in Atlanta, I think black growth has a good chance of offsetting the swing right or turnout decline. Places like Douglas and Henry County have zoomed left not because Dems are improving with the black vote but because the black share of the electorate in those countries has rapidly increased.
