Morning consult - Trump +1

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling?utm_campaign=organic-social&utm_content=1715028508&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Trump - 44
Biden - 43

Same as last week

[Sir Mohamed]

The NPV is a tossup so far, but that's not enough for Biden to reach 270. That said, there's enough time to make the necessary ground up.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The NPV is a tossup so far, but that's not enough for Biden to reach 270. That said, there's enough time to make the necessary ground up.

I think as long as Biden is up in the npv he can win.Thanks to virtue signaling leftists and intellectual dark web types in safe states it’s not like last time.

[SnowLabrador]

The fact that this is the best poll for Biden this week speaks volumes.

[Tekken_Guy]

The NPV is a tossup so far, but that's not enough for Biden to reach 270. That said, there's enough time to make the necessary ground up.

I think he’s close in all the rust belt states though at a tied NPV.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The fact that this is the best poll for Biden this week speaks volumes.

This is only the second poll we’ve got this week mate.

[GoTfan]

The NPV is a tossup so far, but that's not enough for Biden to reach 270. That said, there's enough time to make the necessary ground up.

I think he’s close in all the rust belt states though at a tied NPV.

A tied NPV means a Trump won, doesn't it? Not dooming, genuinely asking.

[Tekken_Guy]

The NPV is a tossup so far, but that's not enough for Biden to reach 270. That said, there's enough time to make the necessary ground up.

I think he’s close in all the rust belt states though at a tied NPV.

A tied NPV means a Trump won, doesn't it? Not dooming, genuinely asking.

I’d say Trump probably takes at least WI at an exact tie, and thus the election, but it’s close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump is only leading by 1 pt he isn't leading those states by NT T margins they are jokes

[CookieDamage]

If Trump is only leading by 1 pt he isn't leading those states by NT T margins they are jokes

You can definitely argue a narrow trump lead nationally translates to larger leads in the swing states considering they lean right compared to America at large. Biden won the NPV by 4 points in 2020 yet only won PA WI and MI by about 1 point each, suggesting those states are 3 points redder than the nation.

Now I don't think Trump +1 would translate to him winning GA by 10

[Tekken_Guy]

If Trump is only leading by 1 pt he isn't leading those states by NT T margins they are jokes

You can definitely argue a narrow trump lead nationally translates to larger leads in the swing states considering they lean right compared to America at large. Biden won the NPV by 4 points in 2020 yet only won PA WI and MI by about 1 point each, suggesting those states are 3 points redder than the nation.

Now I don't think Trump +1 would translate to him winning GA by 10

Polling evidence shows that Trump’s EC advantage has disappeared because the rust belt states are voting roughly even with the PV rather than a few points to its right, though Trump still is outperforming his national numbers in the rust belt.

[2016]

One thing for everyone, D's & R's to keep in mind when talking about Morning Consult National Polls:

No Pollster oversampled Democrats more than them in 2022. They had D's winning the GCB by 5 Points in their Final Poll which was nowhere to be true.

Look at it this way: President Biden is TIED with Trump despite Morning Consult using a D-6 Sample.

It's not going to be a D+6 Electorate in November. Some Pollsters really need their heads to be examined. NPR/Marist did the same in their lastest National Poll using a D+6 Sample.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would still like to see Biden ahead in this poll, but it doesn't suggest movement towards Trump as significant as we've seen in other polls.

The race probably is in a holding pattern, for better and worse (mostly worse).