Question:

The good news for President Joe Biden comes in the form of a two-horse race against former President Donald Trump. After landing within the margin of error against the 45th president in February, the 46th president has more than doubled the 4.0% margin of error (MOE) in this survey with a 48-38% percent advantage. An additional 13% favored “someone else,” while just 1% indicated that they did not know.

When two other options were presented to the respondents in the form of Jill Stein (Green) and Robert Kennedy Jr. (Independent), the race moved within the MOE with Biden at 42% and Trump at 40%. Kennedy (9%) and Stein (3%) seemed to take more support from Biden, who was at 42-37% with the same question in February.

About this Poll

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted March 20 – 31, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 870 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 390 Democrats, 356 Republicans, and 124 Independents.

The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.0 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is larger. The sample error for the two-way presidential horse race question (n=431) is +/- 5.7% and the SE for the multi-candidate presidential horse race question (n=430) +/- 5.7%.