Election 2024 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

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Biden - Trump

Compilation: Average of the most recent three polls. Slight requires that the same candidate wins all three.

		270 \|	538 \|
Biden	222
Trump	287
Ind	0
Tos	29

State Pick-ups

	Gain		Loss		Hold		Toss
	ST	EV	ST	EV	ST	EV	ST	EV
Biden	0	0	-4	-52	19	222	3	29
Trump	+4	+52	0	0	25	235	0	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Polls Aggregate History

Closest States - Average of Three Most Recent Polls

State	Spread	Trump	Biden	Kennedy	Und	WinD	WinR	WinI	Ties	Inc	Status
ME	D +2	38%	40%	10%	12%	2	1	0	0	D - I	Tossup
MN	D +3	40%	43%	0%	8%	3	0	0	0	D - I	Slight Democratic
PA	R +3	44%	42%	5%	7%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Slight Republican
VA	D +4	42%	46%	0%	10%	3	0	0	0	D - I	Slight Democratic
WI	R +4	44%	41%	6%	8%	1	2	0	0	D - I	Tossup
AZ	R +5	44%	39%	6%	9%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Lean Republican
MI	R +5	44%	40%	5%	8%	1	2	0	0	D - I	Lean Republican

Predicted Pick-ups - Average of Three Most Recent Polls

State	Spread	Trump	Biden	Kennedy	Und	WinD	WinR	WinI	Ties	Inc	Status
PA	R +3	44%	42%	5%	7%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Slight Republican
AZ	R +5	44%	39%	6%	9%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Lean Republican
GA	R +6	44%	38%	7%	8%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Lean Republican
NV	R +8	45%	37%	7%	7%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Lean Republican

Most Recent State Polls

State	Date	Poll Source	Spread	DT	Dem	Ind	Other	Und	MOE	Sample	#C
WI	04-21	Kaplan Strategies	R +10	48%	38%	0%	0%	14%	3%	802 L
PA	04-21	Kaplan Strategies	R +5	46%	41%	0%	0%	13%	3%	802 L
MI	04-21	Kaplan Strategies	R +15	51%	36%	0%	0%	13%	3%	804 L
AZ	04-21	Kaplan Strategies	R +4	47%	43%	0%	0%	10%	3%	874 L
MA	04-20	Suffolk University	D +30	22%	52%	8%	3%	16%	4%	500 L
NC	04-17	Meredith College	R +2	41%	39%	9%	4%	7%	4%	711 R
NY	04-17	Siena Research Institute	D +10	37%	47%	0%	4%	12%	4%	806 R
FL	04-17	Florida Atlantic University	R +9	49%	40%	6%	2%	3%	3%	815 L
WI	04-16	Fox News	D +2	41%	43%	9%	4%	4%	3%	1,198 R
WA	04-16	NPI/Civics	D +15	39%	54%	0%	0%	7%	3%	598 L	6
PA	04-16	Fox News	R +2	44%	42%	8%	3%	3%	3%	1,141 R
OR	04-16	NPI/Civics	D +20	34%	54%	0%	0%	11%	3%	246 L	4
MI	04-16	Fox News	R +2	42%	40%	9%	4%	4%	3%	1,126 R
ID	04-16	NPI/Civics	R +35	63%	28%	0%	0%	9%	3%	168 L	0
GA	04-16	Fox News	R +7	46%	39%	7%	4%	4%	3%	1,128 R
WI	04-13	Morning Consult	R +3	44%	41%	8%	2%	5%	3%	803 R
PA	04-13	Morning Consult	R +1	43%	42%	8%	1%	6%	3%	803 R
NC	04-13	Morning Consult	R +10	48%	38%	5%	1%	8%	3%	703 R
NC	04-13	Mason-Dixon	R +6	49%	43%	0%	0%	8%	4%	635 R
NV	04-13	Morning Consult	R +14	48%	34%	7%	5%	6%	5%	450 R
MI	04-13	Morning Consult	D +3	40%	43%	7%	2%	8%	3%	803 R
GA	04-13	Morning Consult	R +8	47%	39%	5%	2%	7%	3%	802 R
AZ	04-13	Morning Consult	R +6	46%	40%	7%	2%	5%	3%	801 R
MI	04-11	Marketing Resource Group	R +3	37%	34%	13%	3%	13%	4%	600 L
AZ	04-11	Tyson Group	R +6	39%	33%	12%	5%	12%	4%	600 L
WI	04-10	Marquette Law School	R +1	42%	41%	12%	4%	1%	5%	736 L
TX	04-10	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	R +12	46%	34%	9%	3%	8%	2%	1,600 L	14
FL	04-10	Emerson College	R +14	49%	35%	6%	2%	9%	3%	1,000 L
WI	04-09	Other Source	R +1	37%	36%	13%	6%	8%	4%	600 L
NC	04-08	Cygnal	R +4	43%	39%	7%	5%	6%	4%	600 L
MN	04-07	Survey USA	D +2	42%	44%	0%	11%	4%	5%	608 L
FL	04-07	Ipsos	R +8	39%	31%	7%	0%	23%	4%	1,014 A	11
TX	04-06	Cygnal	R +9	46%	37%	8%	3%	6%	3%	1,000 L
PA	04-03	Bullfinch Group	R +6	44%	38%	0%	12%	6%	4%	600 R
MI	04-03	Bullfinch Group	D +3	39%	42%	0%	14%	6%	4%	600 R
AZ	04-03	Bullfinch Group	R +6	44%	38%	0%	13%	5%	4%	600 R
TN	04-02	Beacon Research	R +20	48%	28%	15%	0%	9%	3%	1,197 L
PA	03-31	Franklin and Marshall College	D +2	40%	42%	9%	3%	6%	4%	870 R	34
AZ	03-31	RABA Research	R +3	39%	36%	0%	15%	10%	4%	503 R
PA	03-30	Big Data Poll	R +4	46%	42%	9%	3%	0%	3%	1,305 R
MI	03-30	Big Data Poll	R +2	44%	42%	11%	3%	0%	3%	1,218 L
NJ	03-29	Emerson College	D +5	36%	41%	8%	2%	14%	4%	1,000 L
MI	03-28	SPRY Strategies	R +3	43%	40%	9%	4%	4%	4%	709 L
PA	03-26	Bullfinch Group	D +3	41%	44%	7%	4%	4%	4%	800 R	20
WI	03-24	Wall Street Journal	D +3	38%	41%	10%	3%	9%	4%	600 R
PA	03-24	Wall Street Journal	R +3	41%	38%	7%	5%	10%	4%	600 R
NC	03-24	Wall Street Journal	R +8	42%	34%	10%	4%	9%	4%	600 R
NV	03-24	Wall Street Journal	R +4	37%	33%	15%	6%	9%	4%	600 R
MI	03-24	Wall Street Journal	R +2	39%	37%	12%	5%	8%	4%	600 R
GA	03-24	Wall Street Journal	R +3	38%	35%	8%	5%	14%	4%	600 R
AZ	03-24	Wall Street Journal	R +5	39%	34%	13%	6%	9%	4%	600 R
WA	03-21	Echelon Insights	D +12	37%	49%	0%	0%	14%	5%	600 L	5
TX	03-21	Marist College	R +12	48%	36%	15%	0%	1%	4%	1,117 L
WI	03-19	Echelon Insights	D +1	46%	47%	0%	0%	7%	5%	400 L
PA	03-19	Echelon Insights	R +4	49%	45%	0%	0%	6%	5%	400 L
NC	03-19	YouGov	R +1	45%	44%	0%	0%	11%	4%	785 L
NV	03-19	Echelon Insights	R +7	51%	44%	0%	0%	5%	6%	400 L
MI	03-19	Echelon Insights	R +6	51%	45%	0%	0%	4%	5%	400 L
GA	03-19	Echelon Insights	R +10	52%	42%	0%	0%	6%	6%	400 L
CO	03-19	Colorado Polling Institute	D +10	39%	49%	0%	0%	12%	4%	632 L	16

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