Predictions2024 Senatorial Election Polls - PA Polls
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Source: Franklin and Marshall College (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DBob Casey*Democratic46%piePoll Date: 2023-11-22
RDavid McCormickRepublican39%Number Polled: 873
-Other-4%Margin of Error: 4%
-Undecided-12%Voter Type: Likely

  * = Incumbent

Casey Leads McCormick in Pennsylvania

 By: leip (I-NY) on 2023-12-05 @ 08:40:27

Question:

About this Poll
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 11 – 22, 2023. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 873 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 393 Democrats, 359 Republicans, and 121 Independents. The sample of voters was obtained from Aristotle. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography, vote history, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics. Estimates for age, geography, and party registration are based on active voters within the Pennsylvania Department of State’s voter registration data. Gender and education are estimated using data from the November 2022 CPS Voter Registration Supplement.

The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.1 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is larger and is +/- 6.4 percentage points for the Republican presidential primary questions. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.

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