Election 2024 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2023-12-05 Version:1

Prediction Map

bagelman Map

Prediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

bagelman Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	12
Ind	2
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	11
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	0	+1	0	-1	-1	15	4	19	0
Rep	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	9	2	11	+1
Ind	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	2	0	2	-1

Predicted Senate Control (119th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	0	20
Republican	12	0	12
Independent	2	0	2

pie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%						257
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%		1	278	74	T	115
2022 Senate	34/35	30/35	64/70	91.4%		20	3	7	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	28/36	62/72	86.1%		18	1	23	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%		2	7	1	T	118
2020 President	50/56	43/56	93/112	83.0%		15	7	260	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	23/35	53/70	75.7%		16	11	137	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%		6	59	51	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%		2	19	14	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	24/35	55/70	78.6%		20	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	31/36	24/36	55/72	76.4%		14	3	122	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%		1	14	40	T	149
2016 President	51/56	31/56	82/112	73.2%		3	1	149	T	678
Aggregate Predictions	281/310	217/310	498/620	80.3%

User Info

bagelman Forum Profile

Links

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