Brazil thread 2023-

[CumbrianLefty]

War-torn FC Mariupol reborn in Brazil: ‘The least we could do to help give hope’

A Ukrainian community in southern Brazil has decided to turn its local football team into FC Mariupol, a top-flight club disbanded after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in a show of solidarity with the war-torn country.

AA Batel, a team from the Prudentópolis region in Paraná, said on Monday they will take on Mariupol’s kit, crest and logo a year after the Ukrainian club’s facilities and stadium were destroyed in the invasion which Moscow calls a special military operation.

“The club represents the identity of our community and our community is more than 70% Ukrainian and Ukrainian descendants,” said the AA Batel president, Alex Lopes. “Ukraine has always been incredibly supportive of great Brazilian football talent and became an important gateway for players to enter the European market. This is the least we could do to help keep their club alive and give hope to Ukrainians all across the world.”

But, muh, "Global South". Or something.

[Red Velvet]

Well, the global south/multipolarity theory clearly is making a lot of important people clutch their pearls, but including also some posters here if a random team no one in Brazil even heard if in middle of a Paraná Ukrainian immigrant reduct is now more representative of the country than… the last two presidents we had and that summed up >90% of the vote in the past election lol

Both were/are attacked by Western pro-Ukrainian fanatics, Bolsonaro for calling Zelenskyy a comedian clown and meeting in person with Putin just as the war was starting, Lula for saying both sides have responsibility for the war and asking for more pragmatism for the sake of peace.

And guess what? That’s seen as neutral behavior by each of their supporters. Tru for both of them. Finally at last there’s an unspoken consensus regarding some major foreign policy matter despite the big differences.

The world order you guys seek to defend has already ended. You can either accept to take a new role in the new world we’re seeing being drawn or try to postpone the inevitable. Because the future clearly is in the South and belongs to it.

[buritobr]

During the G7 meeting in Japan, Zelenski requested a conversation with Lula. After checking the schedule, the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Relations (Itamaraty) offered the possibility of the meeting between Lula and Zelensky on Sunday at 3:15 pm. A room was set for this meeting. Zelenski didn't appear.

[buritobr]

Yesterday, the House approved the new fiscal policy rule. According to the rule proposed by the Ministry of Finance, the federal government spending should grow no less than 0.6% and no more than 2.5% yearly. If the GDP grows more than 2.5%, the federal government spending will have a smaller growth than the GDP. If the GDP grows less than 0.6%, the federal government spending will have a bigger growth than the GDP. The original proposal of Lula's administration didn't include the spending on elementary education in this limit. The representatives of the conservative parties inside the ruling coalition included the spending on elementary education in this limit. Only 2 parties had all their representatives voting against the new fiscal policy rule: the far-right NOVO considered that this rule allows too high spending. The far-left PSOL voted against because of an opposite motive: this party considered that this rule had too much austerity.

[Red Velvet]

The UK chancellor, James Cleverly, says Brazil has a decisive role in the remodelling of a new world order and defended a Permanent Seat for Brazil in the UN Security Council as a way to reflect power shifts that have moved the center of gravity to the South.

https://twitter.com/cabrestosemno/status/1661771096142626819

[Pivaru]

There was a barbecue at Palácio da Alvorada last week and apparently, during that event, Lula told his cabinet and some supreme court justices that he'll be appointing someone to the supreme court soon, either this week or the next. A seat has been vacant since April, when Ricardo Lewandowski retired. Everything indicates that Lula will appoint Cristiano Zanin, who's known exclusively for being the president's lawyer, pretty unfortunate imo, though it's not surprising, anyone who has been paying attention to Lula since the election should have seen this coming.

According to O Globo, during the barbecue, Lula talked a bit about what he considered to be mistakes in his supreme court picks during his previous terms. The president said he considered all of his picks, except that of Lewandowski (who was at the barbecue and has always ruled in favor of PT and Lula) to have been mistakes. He said his previous choices were too influenced by people like Márcio Thomaz Bastos (the Minister of Justice between 2003 and 2007) and Sigmaringa Seixas (a former federal deputy from PT who, back in the day, was in Lula's shortlist of possible supreme court justices).

Lula's evaluation is that the kind of justices Bastos and Seixas prioritized ended up being the type of people who eventually voted for decisions that hurt PT. Lula also said that respecting the so called triple list for General Prosecutor of the Republic was a mistake. The triple list is something the National Association of Prosecutors of the Republic sends to the president, it contains the names of three people who were voted among members of the association, historically, presidents then choose one of these three names to be General Prosecutor. Bolsonaro broke this tradition by choosing Augusto Aras, PT attacked him quite a bit for that, but it seems like Lula will end up doing the same, once again, not surprising if you've been paying attention.

In short, Lula seems to have one priority when appointing people to the justice system this term, he wants people who'll be loyal to him.

[Pivaru]

The last month has been a bit tough for Lula when it comes to his relation with congress and yesterday, the government just suffered another defeat. The Chamber of Deputies passed bill 490, a proposal spearheaded by the ruralist caucus which makes it so that indigenous tribes can only have their lands demarcated if they can prove they were living there in 1988, when the constitution was adopted. It's a bill obviously meant to benefit farmers and miners, since many tribes are expected to not be able to prove this, since they were expelled from their lands and could only come back and resettle after the cutoff date.

The government tried to articulate yesterday so that the bill wouldn't get voted on, but it didn't work. Arthur Lira, the president of the Chamber, who is in favor of the project, decided to go forward with the vote and it was passed, 283-155. The government now hopes that they'll be able to defeat the bill in the senate.

One common criticism of Lula I've seen over the past months is that he's focused too much on foreign policy, leaving too little time for the president to talk to congressmen. I know one of his allies on the Chamber complained that while the government's deputies are all dealing with the chaotic situation in congress, Lula is more preoccupied with meeting Maduro. I've also heard that centrão people, Lira included, are annoyed at the lack of articulation by Lula. This problem is easily seen by the fact that PSD, MDB and União Brasil, all parties that have ministers in Lula's cabinet, voted against the government yesterday.

Another problem Lula had in congress yesterday was that the Chamber didn't vote on something very important for the government. Back when Lula took office, he signed a decree creating the current 37 ministries and reorganizing some of the ones that already existed before, the decree however needs to be approved by congress and they have 120 days to approve it. The 120 days will run out on 11:59 PM tomorrow, the government expected they'd vote on it yesterday, but the Chamber just chose not to do it. If they let the clock run out (or vote it down), the country will go back to having 23 ministries, the ones that existed under Bolsonaro's administration.

Lula had a meeting with some of his ministers earlier today to discuss this situation and he talked to Lira over the phone, G1 says they'll also meet in person later today. Lira reportedly complained about Alexandre Padilha, the Secretary of Institutional Affairs, who's supposed to be the one dealing with congress on Lula's behalf. They're trying to get some kind of deal done to get the decree passed, afaik, Lira and most of his centrão allies would like to see some a new ministerial reform, scrapping the current ministries and starting over so they can have a say on it too.

The expectation at the moment is that the Chamber will vote on the decree today and if it gets approved, it goes to the Senate and they also vote on it today. The ruralist caucus is planning to vote against it and União Brasil also appears to be planning to vote against the government, PL will vote against the decree as well, of course.

At the end of the day, I expect the government to be able to cook up some kind of deal with congress, I wouldn't even be surprised if União Brasil came to reverse their stance and vote for the decree. Fwiw, just a few hours ago, the government just released BRL $1.7 billion to congressmen, the largest amount released in a single day ever. I remember when Lula criticized Bolsonaro for releasing money for congressmen and called it "worse than Mensalão" during the campaign.

Edit: Lira was asked by journalists about this whole situation and he said blamed this whole thing solely on the government, claiming the congress has no fault here. Lira also claimed he isn't sure if they'll vote on it today, he's still discussing the possibility with the leaderships in the Chamber, he did mention that if it does get voted on, the government is likely to lose. Maybe the situation is more delicate than I thought at first tbh, but we'll see what happens.

Edit: Vote is going to happen today, União Brasil did in fact decide to reverse their stance and will vote with the government, so deal was probably reached. I wonder what the price was.

[Red Velvet]

Brazilian Congress is the dirtiest entity in the entire world, it’s like being forever subjected to the “Big Center” corrupt rule thirsty for power and money, no matter who is elected president.

Has always been like this but it has been largely exacerbated after past decade with “Big Center” emboldened after doing Dilma’s impeachment and Bolsonaro basically giving up governing and giving up his entire power to these people in exchange of support.

We basically have a White Parliamentarism in Brazil these days with a congress that is completely shameless about doing open blackmail. They know they can eternally govern the country now because no one ever holds the Congress accountable for anything, population only kills themselves on fights about the president.

To add to this, the past decade we passed through largely weakened the Executive with the delegitimization of Executive leaders (Dilma; Temer; Bolsonaro) opening a vacuum of power that these people were quick to go after.

Lula is acting like it was like when he governed and not immediately giving everything what these people demand, rightfully so as we need SOME minimal executive leadership. But I think it’s not going to last, he’s just pretending to resist because if you give up to their demands too soon the bunch of leeches will be soon be bolder and be asking for even MORE.

At least I hope it’s this and not a more ideological decision of finally putting a full stop for congress blackmail for more hold at power that belongs to the executive.

You couldn’t stand up to congress in 00s, imagine if that would be viable now after they got to taste even more power in the last decade thanks to the population infighting. Just bribe these leeches from congress when it’s inevitable, as long as you don’t give them full power to rule the country like Bolsonaro did you’re still being responsible as hell. It’s the absolute most you can do in this country if people just choose to do nothing about the congress.

The “Big Center” politicians are elected by the people and if they still vote for parties that basically exist just for the sake of getting more power for themselves, then they AGREE with this behavior even if it’s by omission, lack of interest or full political ignorance. So I don’t get why presidents are always expected these high moral purity standards when working with an ELECTED congress that is the scummiest scum from Planet Earth and are never expected to be something different or better because “there’s nothing you can do about it”.

Bolsonaro was right in getting these people support, his mistake was fully giving up his power to these people in exchange of this. There has to be a middle ground where you don’t let these people govern for you while still attending some of these leeches demands.

I think this difficult balance (that became even harsher after last decade) is what the government is trying to measure right now even if it costs some losses in congress. Because the lesson from Bolsonaro is that it’s dangerous and damaging to the country interests to open the door for the congress to hold even more power but at the same time, you have the Dilma lesson that if you don’t somewhat do it to a level they can be comfortable with, they will just cut your head off until someone who is submissive to them is in power.

Brazilian Congress is nothing more than one giant militia gang anyways, designed to extort us. You shouldn’t stimulate their abusive behavior even more but sometimes you have to pay the fees in order for the gang to not murder you in a public square as a “warning” to the rest of the population. You postpone and be resistant to paying them until it’s literally impossible to keep doing so.

[Red Velvet]

The Ministry MP easily passed, with no surprises for anyone who didn’t have doubts about the congress bluff in an attempt to get more compromises by the Executive Government.

But it’s noticeable that the Supreme Court did this on the same day of these tensions:

https://twitter.com/nadanovonofront/status/1664082923845308417
The only thing I disagree with this tweet is that nothing had to be given to congress. It had a cost of R$ 1.7 Billion in amendments for congress to allocate - which is money that should be distributed by the executive, the legislative function is to legislate and not execute stuff by deciding where the money goes to.

Still good balancing move by both Lula and the STF who suddenly got their senses during the past years. With the Judiciary countering the Strong Legislative after a whole decade of active and continuous weakening of the Executive + the Senate also being way more reasonable to dialogue with than the generalized crooks and clowns in the Congress, there is also very limited opening for Arthur Lira to be Brazil’s Prime Minister like he think he is.

We need to put the congress back on its place, not easily compromising to any crying demand from theirs but still accepting that we will have to often give some stuff in exchange of limited victories considering this Congress composition and how it had its worst characteristics emboldened alongside the past 10 years.

There’s a middle ground between being a Dilma (excessive moral integrity to get involved with congress, refuses to give them anything, gets f***ed over) and a Bolsonaro (shameless and weak, gives congress full power in exchange of support, survives being a pointless Queen of England with more news headlines than power) and that’s what most people expect and want

[buritobr]

The president doesn't need approval of the Congress to name the ministers, but it's necessary to create new departments. If the Congress didn't approve, the government would be in a trouble. Despite the conservative majority in the House (the "centrão" which is more like a "direitão"), the new organization of the government departments had 337 votes for and 125 votes against in the House yesterday. Today, there were 51 votes for and 19 against in the Senate.
It was a very though negotiation, as it was told here.

[buritobr]

Lula decided to appoint his former personal lawyer Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Court, in order to replace Ricardo Lewandowski, who will get retired. Zanin needs approval of the Senate.
Since presidents name the judges of the Supreme Court, we expect that they follow the political views of the president, like it happens in the USA. But appointing a personal lawyer is not a good idea in ordinary times. However, we don't live in ordinary times.
A further problem: we don't really know Zanin ideological views. We know only that he was Lula's lawyer when the president was sued during the Lava Jato Operation.

[Mike88]

Lula decided to appoint his former personal lawyer Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Court, in order to replace Ricardo Lewandowski, who will get retired. Zanin needs approval of the Senate.
Since presidents name the judges of the Supreme Court, we expect that they follow the political views of the president, like it happens in the USA. But appointing a personal lawyer is not a good idea in ordinary times. However, we don't live in ordinary times.
A further problem: we don't really know Zanin ideological views. We know only that he was Lula's lawyer when the president was sued during the Lava Jato Operation.

What?? How can a lawyer become a judge of a Supreme Court? Isn't it mandatory to have a judge certification? It doesn't make any sense and it doesn't look good.

[Red Velvet]

Lula decided to appoint his former personal lawyer Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Court, in order to replace Ricardo Lewandowski, who will get retired. Zanin needs approval of the Senate.
Since presidents name the judges of the Supreme Court, we expect that they follow the political views of the president, like it happens in the USA. But appointing a personal lawyer is not a good idea in ordinary times. However, we don't live in ordinary times.
A further problem: we don't really know Zanin ideological views. We know only that he was Lula's lawyer when the president was sued during the Lava Jato Operation.

What?? How can a lawyer become a judge of a Supreme Court? Isn't it mandatory to have a judge certification? It doesn't make any sense and it doesn't look good.

No, it’s not mandatory. Most of current members weren’t. Actually, technically you don’t even need a Law degree to be nominated to the Supreme Court. The only requirements from the constitution are these:

O Supremo Tribunal Federal é o órgão de cúpula do Poder Judiciário, e a ele compete, precipuamente, a guarda da Constituição, conforme definido no art. 102 da Constituição da República.

  É composto por onze Ministros, todos brasileiros natos (art. 12, § 3º, inc. IV, da CF/1988), escolhidos dentre cidadãos com mais de 35 e menos de 70 anos de idade, de notável saber jurídico e reputação ilibada (art. 101 da CF/1988), e nomeados pelo Presidente da República, após aprovação da escolha pela maioria absoluta do Senado Federal (art. 101, parágrafo único, da CF/1988).

Notable juridic knowledge is a vague description that any people with Law formation can fit. But like I said, technically you don’t even need a degree if you can prove or convince the senate that you have “notable juridic knowledge”.

[buritobr]

As Red Velvet told, according to the Constitution, even a Law degree is not required, althouth all of the judges have it. The "notorius knowledge" is very vague.
Most of the present judges of the Brazilian Supreme Court were never judges before.

Judges of the Supreme Court who were never judges before: Gilmar Mendes (appointed by Fernando Henrique Cardoso), Carmen Lúcia, Dias Toffoli (appointed by Lula), Luís Roberto Barroso, Edson Fachin (appointed by Dilma Rousseff), Alexandre de Moraes (appointed by Michel Temer), André Mendonça (appointed by Jair Bolsonaro)

Judges of the Supreme Court who were judges on lower courts before: Luiz Fux, Rosa Weber (appointed by Dilma Rousseff), Nunes Marques (appointed by Jair Bolsonaro)

[Mike88]

Those seem like weird requirements to be a Supreme Court judge. Is it also a direct and final appointment by the President, thus not passing by a vote in Congress?

[Red Velvet]

Those seem like weird requirements to be a Supreme Court judge. Is it also a direct and final appointment by the President, thus not passing by a vote in Congress?

There is a vote in the senate for approval where they need 50% of the vote. In the congress there is nothing, rightfully so.

The person appointed by the president goes through a public questioning in the senate, where the senators can test their technical knowledge if they want and also make other personal questions if they had doubts. After that, they vote and they decide whether to approve the president decision or not.

It’s just like the process that happens in the USA regarding their Supreme Court nominees.

If you ask me, Lula is 100% right to pick someone of his trust for the nomination but we should also be discussing more what Zanin personally believes in so that we don’t have any future surprises. For now, we only know he was Lula’s lawyer on the car-wash so he’s likely to have a “garantista” approach to law over a “punitivista” one.

Garantista = focus on the rights of the accused being fully exhausted
Punitivista = has a more punitive-oriented leaning

Bolsonaro nominees were two conservatives on social issues but they also tend to a more garantista leaning.

Which makes it important Zanin is more with the 8 other members of the court on social issues. Most of the social advances we had in last decade - celulas-tronco; criminalization of homophobia as a type of racism; lgbt rights like gay marriage and blood donation; etc all came by the supreme court as the legislative is basically a an absent center-right “Big Center” stronghold uninterested in those discussions.

Of the 10 current supreme court ministers (there are 11 spots total), we have:
- 1 nominated by FHC (1995-2002)
- 2 nominated by Lula (2003-2010)
- 4 nominated by Dilma (2011-2016)
- 1 nominated by Michel Temer (2016-2018)
- 2 nominated by Bolsonaro (2019-2022)

So this will be the 3rd minister by Lula, replacing a minister he nominated, I think. The outgoing minister is the one Lula has best relations with so he likely wants to keep someone in there who is loyal to him for that particular spot.

Lula is also doing what Bolsonaro did regarding nominating someone in their 40s, meaning they can last 3 decades in supreme court before reaching retirement age. There wasn’t this concern pre-Bolsonaro but since Bolsonaro started stimulating a more ideological divide over having a technical approach with his 2 nominations, this was inevitable development. You cannot risk now putting someone who will be there for just a decade and then be possibly replaced by someone picked by a conservative president. This concern didn’t exist but now it does.

Lula has a 2nd and final Supreme Court nomination later in 2nd half of this year, as Rosa Weber will reach compulsory retirement age of 75. She’s one of the 4 who was appointed by Dilma.

Unless anyone dies or chooses to retires earlier or something, no other nominations will be dome during Lula’s term. But it’s important to stress Brazil only survived the last election chaos because we had a Supreme Court that acted to preserve democracy, thanks to its composition.

And Alexandre de Moraes (nominated by Temer) is actually the most active in punishing anti-democratic Bolsonaristas, becoming public enemy #1 for these people. There are online jokes and memes about “Xandão”, with hardline Bolsonaristas arguing he’s authoritarian for putting constant restrictions on their ~freedom of speech~

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/eixopolitico/status/1664452868722630656
Bolsonaro goes to a football game but gets a negative reception from the crowd in São Paulo.

[CumbrianLefty]

You do, indeed, love to see it

[buritobr]

The nomination of Zanin is not a simple left vs right issue.
Lula's attempt to nominate his lawyer received lots of criticism from the left. Many leftists consider that a progressive president shouldn't nominate a white straight man now because in the history of the Brazilian Supreme Court since 1822, there were 170 judges and 165 of them were white straight men. Some leftists also have a preference for someone who has clear left-wing political views. We don't Zanin's political views. We know only that he was Lula's lawyer.
The harshest criticism doesn't come from right-wing politicians. The harshest criticism comes from the pro-PSDB media, who considered Lula the lesser of the evils in the runoff in 2022.
Despite the conservative majority in the Senate, I believe Zanin will be approved, since he hasn't clear left-wing political views.
Except Rosa Weber, who said that someone from a minority would be better, the judges of the Supreme Court had a positive view on Zanin.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/rede_marco/status/1665077563654389760
Lula was talking with Pope Francis on the telephone about the defense of peace solution in Ukraine and about the fight against poverty and invited the catholic leader to visit Brazil. But before this, Lula will visit the Pope in Vatican City. June 21st.

In the next day he will immediately go to France, where he will stay for two days. He will see President Macron and will participate in a summit meeting about a new financial global pact, where will be the President of the World Bank; the UN general secretary; the president of the EU and the German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz. Between others.

Lula has already had more bilateral meetings with foreign leaders in six months than Bolsonaro had in four years. And it doesn’t look like Lula’s foreign agenda will slow down.

These are the international trips Lula has done since assuming his 3rd term in January, alongside scheduled future ones:

January 22-25: Argentina (State Visit + CELAC summit)
January 25: Uruguay (State Visit)

February 9-11: United States (State Visit)

April 13-14: China (State Visit)
April 15-16: UAE (State Visit)

April 21-25: Portugal (State Visit)
April 25-26: Spain (State Visit)

May 5-6: United Kingdom (State Visit + Charles coronation)

May 18-21: Japan (G7 summit)

June 21: Vatican City (State Visit)
June 22-23: France (State Visit + other foreign meetings I mentioned)

July 7: Argentina (Mercosur summit)

July: São Tomé and Príncipe (Portuguese Language countries community summit)

August 22-24: South Africa (BRICS summit)

September 5: United States (UN General Assembly event)

September 9-10: India (G20 summit)

November 4-6: UAE (UNFCCC summit)

And those are just the future multilateral events for the future, I am sure there will be many State visits added as the year goes by.

Not to mention these are only the trips he made outside. Lula has also received many leaderships from outside who made State visits to Brasília:

January 30: Germany (Olaf Scholz)

May 9: Netherlands (Mark Rutte)

May 29-31: South American Countries Summit (Every South American country participated, sending their top leaders to Brasília with the exception of Peru who sent their foreign relation minister me thinks. Peruvian president is prohibited to leave the country due to domestic issues).

And even before assuming, Lula was invited to foreign events just after his election victory, which he participated on too even though Bolsonaro was still the president lmao:

November 2022: Egypt (UNFCCC summit)

December 2022: Portugal (non-official State visit)

[Pivaru]

Bad news for Bolsonaro, he could become ineligible as early as this month. Yesterday, the trial of Jair Bolsonaro got scheduled by Superior Electoral Court for June 22 (they have also reserved June 27 and 29 to the discussion of this trial if necessary). This trial in particular is relating to an episode that happened back in July 2022, when he invited a bunch of foreign diplomats to a meeting and proceeded to use that setting to sow distrust on the Brazilian electoral system. The Electoral Public Ministry has already publicly recommended to the court for it to rule against the former president.

I think basically everyone, even Bolsonaro's allies, views his ineligibility as a certainty, it's only a question of when it'll happen. The former president's inner circle is hoping now that Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, the only one appointed by Bolsonaro in the court, will temporarily suspend the trial by asking for more time to analyze the case. That said, even if Nunes does that, the suspension only lasts for 60 days at most (and depending on when the Superior Electoral Court goes into recess, maybe it could end up lasting something like 90 days), after that period, Nunes would have to give his vote and ultimately, that's probably just not enough time for the situation to get better for Bolsonaro. Even if they don't rule against him this time, there's something like 14 or 15 other cases making their way through the court at the moment.

In other news, there was a development in next year's São Paulo mayoral race. After Bolsonaro and the president of PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, met with the incumbent mayor Ricardo Nunes, Bolsonaro's former Minister of the Environment (and currently, a federal deputy), Ricardo Salles, withdrew from the race. Over the past year, Salles worked to be the bolsonarista candidate in the city,  however, he faced a lot of resistance from the more pragmatic, politically savvy wing of his party, including Valdemar, who would rather ally with Nunes or have a more moderate candidate. Up until now, Bolsonaro had more or less sided with Salles, though in a very low-key way. Salles has criticized Bolsonaro over the past two or three days, calling him fragilized, saying his recent actions were shameful and tweeting out that "those who walk with the pigs eat crumbs".

The Nunes camp is pleased with Salles' withdraw as, at least for now, he's the only right wing candidate in the race. I mean, Novo will eventually have their own (probably irrelevant) right wing candidate and there's a chance Senator Marcos Pontes could end up running as PL's candidate, but at the moment, it seems likely that Nunes will be the guy who the right will have to coalesce behind if they want to defeat Guilherme Boulos.

[buritobr]

A hot theme in this June 2023 in Brazil is the debate on the legacy of the Protests of June 2013, in the 10th anniversary. These protests were compared to many others in the early 2010s: Arab Spring, Indignados in Spain, London protests, Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street in the US, anti-Erdogan protests in Turkey, Maidan in Ukraine.

The protests of June 2013 were started by the far-left activists of the "Passe Livre", who were protesting agaisnt the raise of the bus and metro fares in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The targets were the PT mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad (today the Minister of Finance), the PSDB governor of the state of São Paulo (former anti-PT, today the vice president), the PMDB mayor of Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes (now mayor of Rio again) and governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro Sergio Cabral.
After the first week, the protests became huge and included many right-wing middle class people who had the intent to protest against president Dilma Rousseff (not the original intent of "Passe Livre"). It was the first time since 1964 the right put many people on the streets. This movement was the seed of the 2015/16 yellow T-shirt far-right demonstrators for Dilma's impeachment and later for the election of Jair Bolsonaro.
However, the presence of the right on the streets in 2013 was big but short lived. In the second semester of 2013, the protests continued, but they were led by non-PT left-wing movements. They protested against policies of conservative local governments but they also protested against some Dilma Rousseff's policies: the World Cup and Olympics in Brazil, and the Belo Monte Power Plant in the middle of the Amazon Forest.

In the decade following the protests: Dilma Rousseff's narrow reelection in 2014, the election of a very conservative Congress in the same year, Dilma Rousseff's impeachment, Lava Jato Operation, Lula's trial, Bolsonaro's election in 2018, the tragedy of the Covid19 pandemic, and PT in the federal government again.

[Red Velvet]

IPEC poll from June 9th

Evaluation of Lula’s Government:

All Population
37% Good or Great
32% Regular
28% Bad or Awful
3% Don’t Know

Between Bolsonaro 2022 voters
8% Good or Great
33% Regular
56% Bad or Awful
2% Don’t Know

Between Lula 2022 voters
68% Good or Great
27% Regular
3% Bad or Awful
2% Don’t Know

Approval vs Disapproval of Lula’s Government

All Population
53% Approve
40% Disapprove

Between Bolsonaro 2022 voters
19% Approve
76% Disapprove

Between Lula 2022 voters
88% Approve
8% Disapprove

[Pivaru]

Ever since the government and the Chamber of Representatives last had disagreements two weks ago, rumors have been floating that Lula would fire the Minister of Tourism, Daniela Carneiro as a way to get more support in the lower house. Daniela is the wife of Waguinho, the mayor of Belford Roxo, the 6th largest city in Rio de Janeiro. In spite of Bolsonaro's strength in that state (and city), Waguinho supported Lula last election so that Carneiro would get a ministry. They were both part of União Brasil, but he left the party some months ago to join Republicanos and it seems like his wife is going to do the same.

Back in January, Carneiro had already been involved in a bit of scandal when it was revealed that she had connections to some militia groups in Rio. Given that one of the most common routes of attack against Bolsonaro over the past few years was that he had connections to militias, it's not hard to see how appointing her would look hypocritical. That story however got overshadowed by the January 8th attacks, so it was forgotten by most people.

União is not happy with Carneiro, arguing that she doesn't represent the party and leaving her as a minister makes negotiations harder. Most of their members would prefer someone like Celso Sabino, one of União's current federal deputies, in her place. Recently, the party's leadership has been threatening the government over this situation, in private, they have said they'd make 50 of their 59 deputies part of the opposition.

Yesterday, many media publications reported that Lula had decided to fire Carneiro. With this in mind, Waguinho quickly started to argue that he and his wife both made huge sacrifices by supporting Lula and that her substitute would end up just being a bolsonarista. He also tried to get his party to help, but they decided to stay out of the conflict. Today, Lula met with Daniela Carneiro and tried to negotiate with her, offering other offices as consolation prizes, however, she denied the offer. Ultimately, it was decided, somewhat surprisingly, that Carneiro would stay.

Since this news only came out a few hours ago, I don't know how União Brasil will end up reacting. I honestly doubt they'll actually follow up with the threat of becoming an opposition party, but I think the pressure for Carneiro to leave will continue.

[Red Velvet]

The Congress, proving again it’s the single entity still bringing this country down, approved a law that characterizes “Discrimination against Politicians” as a crime equivalent to Racism, with similar punishment.

Hoping the Judiciary declares this as unconstitutional or something because wtf, these people are completely shameless.

Other than the corrupt-as-hell congress lower house (the upper house, aka the senate, is still somewhat decent) being worse than ever and the central bank psychopath nominated by Bolsonaro refusing to bring down the elevated interest rates, the country is doing quite well actually - it feels like paradise after the insanity of the past ten years.

Brazil credit rate perspective was changed to “positive” by S&P, the first positive development in that regard in over a decade - which probably indicate a positive change of winds. Dollar is in a trend of getting cheaper. Some very consumed Products are actually getting cheaper - the price of Picanha where I buy it is more affordable now.

It feels like we’re starting to see the Lula magic begin again after six months. Optimism is very high at this moment, with mostly positive news coming out. Judiciary and Senate seem responsible and aligned with the government. Judiciary is still condemning Bolsonarists who tried to start chaos during the election.

Deltan Dallagnol, the Car-Wash prosecutor in the case that sent Lula to jail, was “impeached” and lost his congress mandate after just being elected year, lasting less than six months in congress. Bolsonaro is expected to be declared ineligible for 8 years in the next two months by the Electoral Courts. Sérgio Moro, the Car-Wash judge who put Lula in jail is in the senate now but could very well follow the steps of Dallagnol and lose his mandate eventually because there’s a process against him, still under analysis.